| 作者 |
 预测中国股市将很快从牛市转为熊市 |
 |
| 所跟贴 |
这个？？ -- 筋斗云 - (41 Byte) 2007-1-29 周一, 22:53 (314 reads) |
sapientaf
头衔: 海归上校
声望: 学员
性别: 
加入时间: 2006/08/20
文章: 821
来自: 弯曲，上海，班格罗尔，北京，新加坡
海归分: 83000
|
|
|
作者：sapientaf 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
>> 我觉着那些数字只是数字。主要应该还是贷存息差吧
Being the "central bank" of China, PBOC does not engage in large scale commercial lending itself. So there is no RBM long/short rate profit issue.
This bloomberg article about PBOC profit might help...
https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=anGxHLkXYr7I&refer=china
China's Central Bank Profits, Standard Chartered Says (Update1)
By Ye Xie
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- China's central bank may have earned $29 billion last year on investment of its foreign reserves, likely the largest such profit by a government bank, according to Standard Chartered Plc.
The People's Bank of China's foreign reserves, the world's largest, exceeded $1 trillion in November. Analysts estimate that about 70 percent of the holdings are invested in U.S. Treasuries and other dollar-denominated assets. Treasuries returned 3.14 percent last year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. data.
``We estimate that at present the PBOC is being paid some $4 billion each month,'' Stephen Green, an economist at the Standard Chartered in Shanghai, wrote in a report today. ``Not bad for a central bank which is not in the market to make money.''
The projected profit would be almost three times that of Goldman, Sachs Group Inc., the most profitable U.S. securities firm. Goldman Sachs earnings advanced almost 70 percent to $9.54 billion last year. The People's Bank's estimated earnings are also roughly equivalent to what Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest U.S. corporation, made in the first three quarters of last year.
The People's Bank of China, through the State Administration of Foreign Exchanges, probably gained 343 billion yuan ($44 billion) in interest payments on its foreign reserve investments, according to Green.
Interest Payments
Conversely, the central bank may have spent 90 billion yuan ($11.5 billion) for interest payments on its debt and on interest for the reserves of commercial banks it holds, Green said. And it lost 26 billion yuan ($3.3 billion) because the currency's appreciation eroded the value of its dollar investments.
China's foreign reserves likely surpassed $1 trillion at the start of November as the nation kept buying dollars to constrain appreciation of its currency, Green said.
Normally, central banks aren't money making ventures. The People's Bank of China has two missions: to maintain domestic price stability and to ensure stable foreign exchange, Green said.
``PBOC is different from most central banks,'' said Donald Straszheim, vice chairman of Newport Beach, California-based Roth Capital Partners, in an e-mail. ``I do not believe that Beijing sees the buildup of these reserves as much of a problem.''
The yuan, trading at 7.8 per dollar, gained 3.4 percent against the dollar in 2006 and 6 percent since July 2005 when China ended the currency's decade-old peg of 8.3 per dollar. The U.S. and Europe have urged the Chinese government to allow its currency to appreciate faster, accusing China of artificially keeping its currency undervalued to make exports cheaper.
2007 Profits
China's trade surplus was $22 billion in November, the nation's second-largest after a record $23.8 billion in October, data from China's customs bureau showed.
China's trade surplus may have grown by almost two-thirds to a record $168 billion during 2006, the customs bureau indicated Dec. 7.
Investments in the stock of Chinese commercial banks listed in overseas stock markets may have further boosted central bank 2006 profits, according to Green.
In 2007, the central bank may earn still more money if it lowers its benchmark interest rate to discourage inflow of overseas money, Green wrote.
``2007 will likely be another profitable year for the PBOC,'' Green wrote.
The return on U.S. Treasuries notes may increase this year if the Federal Reserve lowers its benchmark from 5.25 percent, according to a Bloomberg News survey of the 22 primary government security dealers, which trade with the Fed.
Two-year U.S. Treasury notes will return 5.1 percent and 10- year notes will gain 5.4 percent this year, according to the average forecasts of the dealers.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ye Xie in New York at [email protected]
Last Updated: January 5, 2007 17:59 EST
作者：sapientaf 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
| |
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
