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 ZT Chinese Premier Blames Recession On US Actions[双O帖子简体双语版] |
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tahiti
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游客
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作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
2009年 01月 29日
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao squarely blamed the U.S.-led financial system for the world's deepening economic slump, in the most public indication yet of discord between the U.S. government and its largest creditor.
Leaders in China, the world's third-largest economy, have been surprised and upset over how much the problems of the U.S. financial sector have hurt China's holdings. In response, Beijing is re-examining its U.S. investments, say people familiar with the government's thinking.
Mr. Wen, the first Chinese premier to visit the annual global gathering of economic and political leaders in Davos, Switzerland, delivered a strongly worded indictment of the causes of the crisis, clearly aimed largely at the United States though he didn't name it. Mr. Wen blamed an 'excessive expansion of financial institutions in blind pursuit of profit,' a failure of government supervision of the financial sector, and an 'unsustainable model of development, characterized by prolonged low savings and high consumption.'
Chinese leaders have felt burned by a series of bad experiences with U.S. investments they had believed were safe, say people familiar with their thinking, including holdings in Morgan Stanley, the collapsed Reserve Primary Fund and mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As a result, the people say, government leaders decided not to make new investments in a number of U.S. companies that sought China's capital. China's pullback from Fannie and Freddie debt helped push up rates on U.S. mortgages last year just as Washington was seeking to revive the U.S. housing market.
To be sure, China's economy now is so closely intertwined with the U.S.'s that major, abrupt changes are unlikely. The U.S.-China economic relationship has become arguably the world's most important. China has been recycling its vast export earnings by financing the U.S. deficit through buying Treasurys, helping to keep U.S. interest rates low and give American consumers more spending power to buy Chinese exports.
China now has roughly $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, and has continued to buy U.S. government debt -- surpassing Japan in September as the biggest foreign holder of Treasurys, by one official U.S. measure. China must continue to recycle its trade surplus if it doesn't want its currency to appreciate too quickly.
Still, the relatively smooth financial ties between the two powers that underpinned the global economic boom of recent years are being tested. As both sides survey the wreckage of the U.S. housing bubble and credit crunch, mutual recriminations are raising doubts about the relationship.
The Chinese premier's remarks came a few days after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner fanned the flames when he accused China of 'manipulating' its currency during his confirmation process. That was widely seen as an escalation of longstanding U.S. complaints that China artificially depresses the value of the yuan to bolster its exports, and prompted strong denials from Beijing. The Obama administration has since played down the statement's significance.
More Friction
Frictions between the two countries began to worsen long before Mr. Obama took office. The Chinese central bank last year stopped lending its Treasury holdings for fear the borrowers will go bankrupt, according to people familiar with the discussions -- a decision that disrupted the functioning of the Treasury market. Beijing rejected pleas by Washington to resume its lending of Treasurys, the people said.
Meanwhile, China -- for years the largest foreign investor in bonds from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- has been sharply trimming its holdings of that debt. After making direct net purchases of $46.0 billion in the first half of 2008, China's government and companies were net sellers of $26.1 billion in the five months through November, according to the latest U.S. data.
Weak demand for such debt from China and other foreign investors helped prompt the Federal Reserve to announce in November that it would take the step of buying up to $600 billion in debt from Fannie, Freddie and two other U.S. government-related mortgage businesses.
While Chinese officials have generally been circumspect in public, some Chinese commentators have sharpened their rhetoric in recent weeks. Washington 'should not expect continuous inflow of more cheap foreign capital to fund its one-after-another massive bailouts,' said a December editorial in the government-owned, English-language China Daily. Officials at the newspaper said the commentary wasn't ordered by the government.
Cash-rich Chinese financial institutions are under withering criticism at home for investments in the West that have lost money, such as a $5.6 billion stake in Morgan Stanley purchased by China's sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corp., 13 months ago. The U.S. company's shares have dropped around 60% since then. Chinese institutions have rebuffed entreaties to invest in struggling U.S. companies even as investors from Japan and the Middle East have stepped up.
For years, Washington has pushed China to adopt an economic and financial system more like that in the U.S. -- arguing, for example, that China should liberalize capital flows in and out of the country. In many cases, China has moved more slowly than the U.S. desired. Beijing has resisted American pressure to let its currency appreciate in line with market forces, for example, which economists say has helped inflate China's trade surplus.
But often, U.S. suggestions had a sympathetic audience among reformers in China's government, and many of China's financial overhauls in recent decades have been inspired by the U.S. model. Now, some of these changes, and their proponents, have lost credibility in China in the wake of the financial meltdown, and recently commentators and officials in China have been increasingly critical about Washington.
Amid high-level Sino-U.S. economic talks in Beijing in early December, Chinese officials admonished the U.S. and Europe for their financial governance.
Vice Premier Wang Qishan, China's top finance official, called on the U.S. to 'take all necessary measures to stabilize its economy and financial markets to ensure the security of China's assets and investments in the U.S.'
A similar complaint was issued by Lou Jiwei, chairman of CIC, the government fund established in 2007 to seek higher returns on a $200 billion chunk of China's currency holdings. Mr. Lou said in a December speech that he has 'lost confidence' because of inconsistent government policies concerning support for Western banks. 'We don't know when these institutions will be invested in by their governments,' he said.
Fate of U.S. Investments
CIC officials are especially sensitive about the fate of their U.S. investments because they have been under fire for the poor performance of earlier deals. CIC has sustained large paper losses on the $3 billion it invested in Blackstone Group LP in June 2007, as well as the Morgan Stanley stake. Staffed by officials, some western-educated, who have helped promote financial-market liberalization in China, CIC is also viewed by some Chinese as a symbol of the country's close financial ties to the U.S. -- another reason it has been in the crosshairs.
Around October, a lengthy Chinese-language essay began circulating on the Internet excoriating Mr. Lou and other top CIC officials, along with Zhou Xiaochuan, China's central bank governor, for being too close to the U.S. and then Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The diatribe quickly gained wide circulation in Chinese financial circles. One passage charged that Mr. Zhou 'colluded with Henry Paulson to buy U.S. bonds, forced [Chinese yuan] appreciation, attached China's economy to the U.S. and broke China's economic independence.'
Chinese and U.S. interests remain deeply enmeshed. Washington's huge stimulus plans will result in even heavier borrowing, and, while rising savings in the U.S. could create more domestic capital to help fund that, Chinese lending will remain important.
Japan investors, too, have been selling Fannie and Freddie debt and making other moves to limit their U.S. risk. An official at another Asian central bank in charge of managing hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves noted late last year that trading in some derivative instruments had factored in a slightly higher possibility of default by the U.S. government, though that prospect is still viewed by most investors as extremely low.
The alarm for Chinese leaders started ringing loudly in July and August as problems deepened at Fannie and Freddie. Senior Chinese leaders, who hadn't been apprised in detail of how China's reserves were being invested, learned for the first time in published reports that the country's exposure to debt from those two alone totaled nearly $400 billion, say people familiar with the matter.
Fearing that the U.S. government might not fully back the companies, China demanded and received regular briefings throughout the peak of the crisis from high-level Treasury Department officials, including Mr. Paulson, on the market for U.S. debt securities -- especially those of the mortgage giants.
Mr. Paulson and other Treasury officials spoke regularly with Vice Premier Wang and other senior Chinese officials to soothe their concerns.
Hit With Questions
Chinese officials often bombarded their U.S. counterparts with questions, according to people who were present at meetings.
While Mr. Paulson was in Beijing for the Olympics in August, he dined with Mr. Zhou, the central bank chief, at the Whampoa Club, an upscale restaurant that serves modern Chinese cuisine in a traditional courtyard building near the city's Financial Street.
On Sept. 7, Mr. Paulson announced that the U.S. government would seize Fannie and Freddie, but Chinese officials remained concerned.
At one briefing for Chinese officials to explain the change, said people present, they questioned and debated the meaning of nearly every line of the new Treasury plan.
Then Washington allowed Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to collapse, further shaking Beijing's faith. One casualty was CIC's nearly $5.4 billion investment in the Reserve Primary Fund, the money-market fund that 'broke the buck' in September as a result of the Lehman collapse.
CIC had placed money in the Primary Fund because 'money market funds are supposed to be very safe,' said a Chinese official in an interview late last year. But on Sept. 16, the Primary Fund's managers announced that they were delaying redemptions.
CIC officials emailed Reserve asking to withdraw all of its money from the fund, and promptly received a reply agreeing to the request, says the Chinese official.
CIC officials believed the agreement meant that CIC had become a creditor to the troubled fund, and therefore was entitled to all of its money.
A Reserve spokeswoman says the company doesn't comment on individual clients.
Later in the day on Sept. 16, Reserve announced that the Primary Fund's net asset value had fallen to 97 cents a share, below the standard $1.00 level.
Reserve initially said redemption requests received before 3 p.m. that day would be honored in full, but has since said that the net asset value already was down to 99 cents a share by 11 a.m.
As Reserve further delayed payments, CIC began to fear that it might not get all of its money.
The Reserve issue 'is causing a lot of concern with a lot of financial institutions in China,' said the Chinese official.
Some officials expected that the U.S. and its financial institutions would better protect China from loss.
'If the U.S. is treating us this way, eventually that will be enough cause for concern in the stability of the [U.S.] system,' the official said.
A CIC spokeswoman declined to comment on the current status of the dispute.
Jason Dean / James T. Areddy / Serena Ng
温家宝指责美国引发全球经济衰退
中国总理温家宝直截了当指责美国为首的金融体系导致全球日益严重的经济衰退，这是迄今显示美国政府与它最大债权人中国不和的最为公开的表现。
目睹美国金融领域的问题给中国投资造成严重损失，中国领导人已经感到惊讶与恼怒。据知情人士透露，北京方面正在重新审视对美国的投资。中国是世界第三大经济体。
温家宝是首位参加瑞士达沃斯年度全球经济论坛的中国领导人，他在讲话中措辞严厉地指出了危机的根源所在，虽然没有点名，但明显将主要矛头指向美国。温家宝将问题归咎于金融机构盲目追求利润的过度扩张，政府对金融行业监管失败，以及以长期低储蓄与高消费为特症的不可持续的发展模式。
据了解中国领导人想法的人士透露，中国领导人已经对他们此前认为安全的在美国投资接连遭受失败感到恼火，包括在摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、破产的货币基金Reserve Primary Fund以及两家抵押贷款巨头房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)的投资。这些人士称，中国领导人因此决定不再对寻求中国注资的诸多美国公司进行新投资。就在去年华盛顿希望重振美国住房市场之际，中国决定抛售房地美和房利美债券，在一定程度上推高了美国抵押贷款利率。
当然，中国经济目前与美国经济如此密切交织，因此不太可能出现重大骤变。可以认为中美经济关系已成为全球最重要的双边关系。中国一直用巨大的出口收益购买美国国债，从而为美国经济赤字提供融资，帮助美国维持低利率水平，也给美国消费者提供了更强的消费能力以购买中国产品。
中国目前持有大约2万亿美元的外汇储备，并在持续购买美国国债；按着美国一项官方数据，去年9月中国已经超过日本成为美国国债最大的海外持有者。如果中国不想人民币过快升值的话，就必须继续将贸易顺差所得投入到美国。
此外，近年来支撑全球经济热潮的中美两国相对良好的经济关系目前正面临着考验。随着双方都在评估美国住房泡沫和信贷危机带来的损失，相互之间的指责正给两国关系带来了疑问。
在温家宝发表上述讲话前几天，美国财政部长盖纳(Timothy Geithner)挑起了争执，他在提名确认听证会上指责中国操纵人民币汇率，他的话被普遍视为是美国在人民币问题上长期不满情绪的升级。美国一直抱怨中国人为压低人民币汇率以提振出口。北京方面随后发表声明予以强烈否认。此后奥巴马政府对声明采取了淡化态度。
更多摩擦
在奥巴马上任之前很久，中美两国之间的摩擦就开始恶化。据知情人士称，中国央行去年停止了出借美国国债，主要是担心借贷方会沦为破产。这一决定打乱了美国国债市场的运转。他们透露，北京拒绝了华盛顿方面恢复出借美国国债的请求。
与此同时，作为房利美和房地美债券多年来最大的海外投资者，中国政府大举减持了这方面投资。根据最近的美国数据，中国政府和企业去年上半年还净买入460亿美元此类债券，而到截至11月的5个月时间却净抛售了261亿美元此类资产。
中国和其他海外投资者对“两房”债券需求疲软，迫使美联储去年11月宣布，将购买至多6,000亿美元的房利美、房地美以及其他两家有政府背景的抵押贷款企业发行的债券。
虽然中国官员通常在公众面前很是谨慎，但近几周来一些中国评论人士的措辞则变得尖锐了起来。国有英文报纸《中国日报》(China Daily) 12月时撰文指出，华盛顿不该指望会有连续不断的廉价外资来支撑美国一波又一波的大型经济救助方案。在该报供职的官员表示此番评论并非源于政府授意。
现金充裕的中资金融机构由于在投资西方国家时出现亏损而遭到猛烈批评，例如13个月前中投公司(China Investment Corp.)斥资56亿美元参股摩根士丹利，而今该股股价已跌去了将近60%。中资金融现在已经拒绝了身陷困境的美国公司所发出的投资请求，而与此同时日本及中东投资者加大了投资力度。
多年来，华盛顿一直在敦促中国建立一种更像美国的经济和金融系统，举例来说，美国认为中国应该开放资本的自由流动。在多数情况下，中国的行动都比美国希望的迟缓。北京拒绝听命于美国有关人民币汇率应在市场力量主导下升值的要求，经济学家认为中国政府这一立场助长了中国贸易顺差的膨胀。
但中国政府的改革派中经常有人赞同美方建议，而且近几十来中国金融系统的许多改革方案都受到了美国模式的启发。现在，随着金融危机的爆发，这些改革措施以及它们背后的倡议者在中国都失去了市场，最近一段时间评论人士以及政府官员都对华盛顿提出了越来越多的批评。
在去年12月初举行的中美高级别经济对话中，中国官员对美国和欧洲的金融监管提出了警告。
中国主管金融工作的副总理王岐山敦促美国采取一切必要措施，稳定经济及金融市场，以确保中国在美资产及投资的安全。
中投公司董事长楼继伟也发出了类似的抱怨。这家成立于2007年的公司希望为来自中国外汇储备中的2,000亿美元寻求更高的回报。楼继伟在12月份的讲话中说，自己已经失去了信心，因为西方政府对银行的支持政策前后矛盾。他说，我们不知道这些机构什么时候会获得政府的投资。
在美投资的命运
中投官员对它在美国的投资结果格外敏感，因为早先投资的不佳表现令他们遭到了痛批。中投于2007年6月份斥资30亿美元投资百仕通集团 (Blackstone Group LP)，后又参股摩根士丹利，结果遭受巨额浮亏。现在在中投公司任职的多是些在西方受过教育、倡导中国推行金融市场自由化的官员，因此在一些中国人眼中，这家公司象征着中美两国的金融纽带，这也是公司另一个引人非议的地方。
去年10月左右，在中国的互联网上曾流传一篇由中文写的长篇大作，炮轰楼继伟等中投官员及央行行长周小川与美国和当时美国财长鲍尔森关系过密。这篇批评文章在中国金融届流传甚广。其中有一段指责周小川和鲍尔森唱双簧，让中国投资美国国债，迫使人民币升值、令中国经济命系于美国，破坏中国的经济独立性。
中美利益仍然紧紧交织。华盛顿的巨额经济刺激方案必然导致更大力度的借贷，虽然美国本土储蓄率的上升对在国内解决这个问题多少有些帮助，但来自中国的借款仍是非常重要的。
日本投资者也一直在抛出房利美和房地美的债券，并采取了其他措施来降低在美投资的风险。就职于亚洲另一经济体央行、负责管理数千亿美元储备的一位官员曾在去年年底时指出，一些衍生工具的交易价格反映出市场认为美国政府违约可能性稍有上升，不过在大多数投资者看来，这种风险仍非常非常低。
随着房利美和房地美问题在7、8月份时恶化，中国领导人听到了越来越大的警报声。知情人士说，中国政府高层此前并不知道中国外汇储备具体是如何投资的，眼下他们第一次在官方报告中获知，中国仅在“两房”债券上的风险敞口就有将近4,000亿美元。
中国担心美国政府可能不会全力支持这些企业，在危机最严重的阶段，中国要求包括财政部长鲍尔森在内的美国财政部高层官员，向北京提供有关美国债券（特别是抵押贷款巨头的债券）市场的定期报告；美国政府按它的要求办了。
鲍尔森和其他财政部官员定期与王岐山等中国政府高层谈话，以打消他们的疑虑。
质疑不断
据参加会议的人士说，中国官员常常问美国官员一大堆的问题。
就在鲍尔森8月份参加北京奥运会活动时，他与中国央行行长周小川在黄浦会共进晚餐。这个坐落在金融街附近一个传统四合院中的高级餐馆供应现代中国美食。
9月7日，鲍尔森宣布美国政府将接管房利美和房地美，不过中国官员仍无法释怀。
知情人士说，在向中国官员解释接管“两房”的会议上，中国官员几乎对财政部新计划中逐条提出质疑，并进行了讨论。
之后，华盛顿听任雷曼兄弟崩溃，这进一步动摇了北京的信任。一个牺牲品就是中投公司在Reserve Primary Fund中近54亿美元的投资。由于雷曼兄弟的崩溃，这只货币市场基金9月份跌破净值。
一位中国官员在去年底接受采访时说，中投公司曾投资这只基金，因为货币市场基金本该非常安全。但是，在9月16日，这只基金的经理宣布他们将推迟赎回。
这位官员说，中投公司的管理人士向这只基金发送了电子邮件，要求从基金中全数撤资，并且马上收到了一封同意赎回请求的回函。
中投公司的管理人士认为，这意味着它已经成为了这只问题基金的债权人，所以有权拿回全部的投资。
这只基金的发言人说，公司不对具体的客户置评。
9月16日晚些时候，这只基金宣布说，其每股资产净值已经跌到0.97美元，跌破了一美元面值。
Reserve最初时说，在当日下午3点前收到的赎回请求将获得全额退还，不过此后一直说，当日上午11点前公司的每股资产净值已经跌至0.99美元了。
由于Reserve再次推迟了赎回，中投公司开始担心它可能无法拿回全部的资金。
这位中国官员说，Reserve的问题在中国引起了对很多美国金融机构的严重担忧。
一些官员预计美国和它的金融机构将会更好地保护中国免受损失。这位官员说，如果美国这样对待我们，最终这将足以引起对美国体系稳定性的担忧。
中投公司发言人拒绝对这一事件的现状置评。
Jason Dean / James T. Areddy / Serena Ng
本文涉及股票或公司
Fannie Mae
总部地点：美国
上市地点：纽约证交所
股票代码：FNM
Freddie Mac
总部地点：美国
上市地点：纽约证交所
股票代码：FRE
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 ZT Chinese Premier Blames Recession On US Actions[双O帖子简体双语版] -- tahiti - (16065 Byte) 2009-1-30 周五, 10:06 (1808 reads)
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