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 Investment 101 -- NASDAQ big picture: Prepare to enter |
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hwarrensen
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加入时间: 2004/02/22
文章: 1961
海归分: 300133
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作者：hwarrensen 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Just some ideas to share with folks here. I have been following recent Nasdas development closely. It seems the market somehow resumed the up momentum, as we wished.
I was hoping the 2000 support held. It was not, but the next support@ 1950 formed in Nov/Dec 2003 seems strong enough to hold the market.
In addtion, a couple of positive signs. Please use the weekly chart setting as I mentioned in the TA tool kit:
1. Please check the volume. From July 2003 - Jan 2004, the volume trended up, agreeing with the price movement. The market peaked in the 2nd week of Feb. In the next months, Feb & March 2004, the market trended down. But the volume was also decreasing. This was a good sign, meaning the down trend did not have the momentum to continue.
2. Check the recent two weeks, using the Candlestick charting: Last week was a typical hammer formation. The small filled body with the long tail meaning the bear has exhausted its momentum. Then came this week's large blank box. Please note the volume increased with the large blank box. This is a typical reverse sign of the previous down trend.
3. Also, please note the symmetry of this market bottom sign with the recent peak pattern in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd week of Jan. 2004. Note the thin filled body with a long antenna at the market peak, followed by the large filled box. This was the clear sign of intermediate peak. Now check the recent two weeks, they are exactly the mirror image of the peak! Meaning: This may be a intermidiate market bottom. A uptrend may start.
4. Again, let's go back a little further: One year ago, in the 2nd and 3rd week of Feb 2003, you can spot the same pattrn as what we see of the previous two weeks. After moving side-ways for two weeks, the market started a long up running for almos one year!
5. As I mentioned before, I was bullish for long term, but bearish for short term. Now my short term vision is also bullish. If the market can indeed hold the 2000 support, the the next near resist will be in the 2200 level. The market may move zig-zag ther for a while. But if this resist is broken (and I indeed hope so!), we may indeed see a strong up run, the typical cup-with a handle formation, as I have been wishing for a long time!
6. Let's keep our fingers closed! Again, never think this is a forecast or anything. This is just MY GUESS!
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作者：hwarrensen 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 Investment 101 -- NASDAQ big picture: Prepare to enter -- hwarrensen - (3225 Byte) 2004-4-05 周一, 07:14 (1391 reads)
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