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 [转帖]Zune Player Enters iPod Market by Red Herring |
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作者：天蝎座的 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Zune Player Enters iPod Market
Microsoft begins sales of Zune media player on Apple’s turf.
November 14, 2006
Microsoft began selling its Zune digital media player on Tuesday, marking its foray into the market dominated by Apple Computer’s iPod. While the software giant is a latecomer to the digital music scene, industry analysts will be watching closely.
That’s because Apple has enjoyed a runaway success, garnering over 70 percent of the portable music player market with no serious threats to its dominance so far. Further, the iPod has fueled a turnaround for the Mac maker. Revenue from iPods accounts for 40 percent of all of Apple’s sales (see Big Music Takes on Steve Jobs).
“Apple is certainly aware of Zune,” Directions on Microsoft analyst Matt Rosoff said. “Steve Jobs knew it was coming.”
Make no mistake. When Microsoft enters a market, the game is forever changed. Take Xbox. The software maker has catapulted to the No. 2 spot in game consoles. And it won’t be long before Microsoft shares nearly half of the console market with Sony, according to analysts at Yankee Group.
‘Apple can thrive if they stay one step ahead.’
-Matt Rosoff,
Directions on Microsoft
Apple’s fiscal full-year sales of iPods were $ 7.67 billion for 2006. The computer maker’s full-year 2006 sales overall totaled $19.3 billion. For its 2006 period, it sold 39.4 million iPod units, a 75 percent increase from last year's figure.
That’s the kind of growth trajectory Wall Street likes. In the five years since the iPod’s launch, Apple stock has rocketed from a low of about $10 to $84 in recent trading. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s stock has languished as it has lacked such a growth engine.
Shares of Microsoft fell $0.03 to $29.22 in recent trading Tuesday, while Apple shares rose $0.22 to $84.57.
But Apple’s iPod revenue growth pace is seen as slowing. For full-year 2007, it’s expected to do $8.7 billion in iPod sales, and full-year 2008 it’s expected to reach $10 billion. Still, those kinds of numbers have rivals drooling for a piece of the action.
“I would not discount Microsoft,” said Pacific Growth Equities analyst Derrick Wood. “They are a very big company that can make a very big marketing splash.”
The software behemoth has committed to spending hundreds of millions of dollars in a multiyear effort to drive its digital music players. Microsoft is modeling its Zune strategy after its money-losing Xbox game consoles efforts.
Selling Cool
Microsoft has launched a marketing attack that goes for the cool crowd. Clearly, it wants to attract the same crowd as Apple. In television ads, movie advertisements, and in Internet marketing the software giant is reaching out to the young and hip.
It’s targeting music fans who listen to independent artists. It’s also been giving out its device at preview parties for people to see and try. On Monday night, the company promoted the device at six small U.S. concerts. The Red Hot Chili Peppers played in Los Angeles for one Zune such party (see Red Hots to Rock the Zune).
It’s got a Microsoft employee, Cesar Menendez, writing a blog at Zune Insider on the device’s various tours, dates, and personalities involved with it.
“With Zune, they’re focusing on the hard-core music fans,” Mr. Rosoff said. “I think Microsoft hopes to actually turn that into a profitable business and sort of bolster its entire home entertainment strategy.”
Microsoft clearly has its work cut out. Apple Computer has a five-year head start. In that time, Apple has spawned a vast line of iPod players at many prices and storage sizes that all work effortlessly with iTunes software. Further, the line of iPod accessories has reached a point of obsession (see 6 Oddest iPod Accessories).
Design Cues
Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ emphasis on design of carefully planned players has earned the iPod respect and allegiance. The company’s close handling of all aspects of the product—from design to software to hardware—has made it known for details. Apple’s design guru Jonathan Ive is an industry legend.
Now Microsoft is attempting to steal a page from Apple’s playbook.
But good luck. The Zune player, built by Toshiba, and Microsoft’s music service, Zune Marketplace, are the software maker’s first fully integrated approach to building a music strategy such as Apple's. By most accounts it’s a crude first attempt at replicating the cool factor that has driven Apple’s success.
The Zune device itself lacks the elegant iPod design. The size is chunkier and some reviewers have pointed out that the finish of it is nowhere near that of an iPod. The fake click wheel has also been criticized.
Feature Bloat
Yet for all its warts, the Zune player has features that iPod doesn’t. Its FM tuner is something that iPods have long lacked. The 30-gigabyte player also has a three-inch screen that is larger than the iPod’s. But its wireless feature is the one that holds the most potential to set apart the device. Or it could be a flop. Some analysts have pointed out that the Wi-Fi feature will be a battery hog.
“Microsoft is banking on wireless. That could prove to be a big differentiator—or people might not care,” Mr. Rosoff said.
The Zune media player falls under the software maker’s Entertainment and Devices division, headed by Microsoft President Robbie Bach, who is also responsible for Xbox. The Xbox has become the software maker’s biggest play for a piece of the $17-billion United States console market and for a position in the living room. Zune is another piece in its entertainment strategy.
“That’s a lot of fronts to be fighting on at one time,” DFC Intelligence analyst David Cole said. “All these areas are kind of branching out from Microsoft’s core business. Clearly, it’s part of an entertainment strategy, but trying to compete on a system that’s not necessarily synergistic.”
For Apple, none of this may be much of an immediate threat. But Microsoft doesn’t give up easily. And Apple clearly has the most to lose. For Apple, what’s at stake is the future position of the product that brought the company back from irrelevance.
Converting Masses
And while iPod users are notoriously faithful, a recent study, however, has cast some doubts. ABI Research released a study on November 1 that suggested some iPod owners might consider buying a Zune (see iPod Users Consider a Zune).
ABI’s study found that 58 percent of iPod owners who plan to buy another digital media player would consider buying a Zune. The report also said that only 15 percent of iPod owners indicated they were “not very likely” or “not at all likely” to choose Zune.
“Apple can thrive if they stay one step ahead with iTV as well as by continuing to improve the device itself,” Mr. Rosoff said.
Plus, Microsoft may actually do more damage in the market to other digital media player makers. The company is likely to compete against its partners Creative, Sony, Samsung, Archos, Toshiba, Philips, and others, according to American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu.
“I think with 10 to 15 percent of the market by next year, they’ll be happy,” Mr. Rosoff said. “Most of that being other players than Apple. They might have some chance of conversions.”
And Apple may decide to change the game. The Mac maker is widely expected to make a leap into music phones with an announcement about an iPhone at MacWorld January, according to a Prudential Equity Group analyst (see Two Apple iPhones Coming).
Microsoft’s Zune is on sale for $249 at Best Buy, Circuit City, Amazon.com, Wall-Mart, and other retailers. It comes in black, brown, and white.
作者：天蝎座的 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [转帖]Zune Player Enters iPod Market by Red Herring -- 天蝎座的 - (7882 Byte) 2006-11-15 周三, 10:33 (1226 reads)
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