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 [老中求助] 本人数万美元I-BOND[ABOUT 4% AFTER-TAX], 该移至国内换RMB? WHY?THX! |
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[老中求助] 本人数万美元I-BOND[ABOUT 4% AFTER-TAX], 该移至国内换RMB? WHY?THX! -- laozhong - (0 Byte) 2006-8-12 周六, 09:53 (2594 reads) |
GSBSMSLBC
头衔: 海归中尉
加入时间: 2006/07/16
文章: 59
海归分: 4474
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作者：GSBSMSLBC 在 海归酒吧 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
本来想说 It depends (on the rest of your portfolio, to which your I-bonds can serve as hedging vehicle against, say, China-related catastrophic risks), but I don't like this politically correct answer.
Some simple-minded analysis: Your I-bonds are earning 4%. Assume comparable Chinese T-bonds are earning 3.25% （0% income and capital gain taxes) and RMB will appreciate 3% each year for the next three years against US dollar then stay put. Take a ten-year investment horizon. Also assume 0.2% capital gain taxes when you liquiddate and another 0.2% two-way transaction costs (including early cash out penalty if any). Result? You will actually be slightly better-off doing nothing.
如果你已经在中国有相当资产，you will need a 5% (my guesstimate) inflation-adjusted risk-free rate in China to break even. It makes less sense to hold US I-bonds if you live in China though. Inflation in China does concern me a little.
However, if you are holding cash and in your 40s (if not younger), then it's a no brainer to convert into RMB and invest in China.
Correct me if I am wrong. 欢迎拍砖。
签名：做个四不男人很容易吗？
作者：GSBSMSLBC 在 海归酒吧 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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