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 [讨论]美元对欧元还会再跌么? |
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one weakness in your argument -- parisparis - (1283 Byte) 2007-9-23 周日, 11:56 (394 reads) |
handsomekenney
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作者：handsomekenney 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
do you really think America can successfully control the mid-east oil?
Saudi, kuwait, Bahrain, yes.
Currently no for Iraq. The big mess there sucks more fiscal resource than the dollar cash it is "planned" to contribute. I read reports that DOF did provide a forecast to show that the war can be self-financed. What we actually see up till now is a negative 300b cash flow.
Iranian oil can not be controlled too. Yes, America is gonna bomb Iran for sure. But without a complete conquest, it is not possible to control all of its oil to recycle petrodollar.
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What I am talking about "control" is not a kind of "dominate absolutely" but " a influence important enough".
The stragity objectif of US in Gulf is not to dominate the oil business, but try to influence by all means the policys of his arabe brothers ( oil production, pricing, military politicys, fonds moving etc).
Before US has succesfully attacked Iraq, the Gulf nations are his good neighbours. But now, they have became his backyard keepers. It is a very big diffrence.
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It is not correct to caculate the Fincial Balance for the US military resting in Iraq by your way.
From the Sheet of cash flew, of course they are losting money. But there are so much profits hiden behind this paper published. those profits are big enough to encourage the " group in commen interest" to keep their policy in Iraq. Who are they ? You are in US and know much better then me .
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Distrub Iranian's production plan is enough for US stragity objectif. It is not necessary to bombe Iran right now. The time is on the Americans side.
You assume that Russia is dead--while, not the case since the high oil price created by America financed the remarkable recovery of Russia---you check the trade balance numbers of Russia over the past 5 years, you will be shocked. Russia is penetrating Afganstan and poses as new threat to America. With a patriotic dictator Putin in power, Russia is definitely gonna challenge America again.
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Russia is not a threat to anyone anylonger. They are rich, but their politic structure limite his war/diplomatic ability.
In sum, neoconservatives' blueprint is supposed to be great for our American empire, but in reality, cracks pops up on various assumptions.
I am concerned that our Darth Vader, the mastermind behind all the Iraq war and forthcoming Iranian war, our VP, might bring new disaster to America.
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Whatever, US policy is very clair - "keeping dollars used by the world" and " manipuly the price of oil".
作者：handsomekenney 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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