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 正反两方面的意见都要听，before you make your buy decision. |
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ceo/cfo
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
ZT dated March 31, 2008 from Barrons'
SHARES OF SEVERAL LEADING commodity-based index funds lost value on Monday following a Barron's cover story that argued that such investments were frothy and due for a big fall.
Shares of Power-Shares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust were off by 3.8% in midday trading Monday, while the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return was off 2.05%.
In "Danger Lurks," Barron's Economics Editor Gene Epstein wrote that "thanks to the proliferation of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds tied to commodities indexes, speculative buying has gone way beyond anything the domestic commodities markets have ever seen."
By one estimate, he wrote, index funds right now account for 40% of all bullish bets on commodities.
"Here's the problem: The speculators' bullishness may be way overdone, in the process lifting prices far above fair value," Epstein wrote. "If the speculators were to follow the commercial players -- the farmers, the food processors, the energy producers and others who trade daily in the physical commodities -- they'd be heading for the exits."
Epstein wrote that these commercial players -- the so-called smart-money crowd when it comes to commodity investing -- are betting on price declines more heavily than ever before.
For example, in the 17 commodities that make up the Continuous Commodity Index, net short positions by the commercials have been running more than 30% higher than their previous net-short record, in March 2004.
Epstein discusses several factors that could trigger a bursting of the commodities bubble.
One possible trigger was cited in a Barron's interview with Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics, published last week. Weinberg anticipated a break "some time this year" in industrial commodities, including crude oil, copper and natural gas once there is news of "even the slightest slowdown in the Chinese economy," the country whose insatiable demand, together with that of India, has been a rallying cry of the bullish speculators. When industrial commodities prove vulnerable, speculative money could start fleeing agricultural commodities, also.
Société Générale analyst Albert Edwards goes much further, Epstein writes. based on his view that the "Commodity bubble is nonsense on stilts," Edwards holds the "very strong conviction that before the end of this year, commodity prices...will be unraveling." He believes the triggering events will be the "unfolding U.S. consumer recession" and likelihood of "negative CPI [consumer price index] inflation rates."
作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 正反两方面的意见都要听，before you make your buy decision. -- ceo/cfo - (2714 Byte) 2008-4-07 周一, 20:53 (870 reads)
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