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 Good good study系列：一些双语材料 |
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作者：游客 在 海归茶馆 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Good good study, day day up 
当年的Chinglish，有意思。
最近在学习一些小语种，感觉英语水平有停滞甚至倒退的倾向，所以占用老狼的资源放一些学习材料，以备温习。
中国房产市场难挡外资洪流
作者：安理国际律师事务所上海办事处管理合伙人西蒙•布莱克(Simon Black)为英国《金融时报》撰稿
2007年7月9日 星期一
搭乘着往返于北京和中国中部城市武汉之间的航班，弗兰克•徐(Frank Xu，音译)匆匆奔向中国建筑热潮创造出的另一个投资机遇。建筑热潮正推动着中国经济的发展。
带着装满各种电子数据表格的手提电脑，这位海外留学归来的中国大陆基金经理的目标是，为他管理的中国房地产机遇国际基金最近筹集的10亿多美元资金找到安全去处。这通常意味着艰巨的工作。
找到好的资产和可信赖的地方合作伙伴，就交易和资产管理进行谈判，这些都是挑战。在善变的卖方与纽约投资委员会和合规团队之间，他是协调双方要求的人。这是“中国通”的典型工作，如今并没有变得更为容易。
弗兰克有一叠中国最近的立法，这些立法在这里被称为“文”。这些“文”的名字他都能脱口而出。第50号文、第171号文和第192号文似乎都各有不同方向，但都与他达成下一个交易的目标背道而驰。
3年来，为了让老百姓负担得起房价，中国一直在试图抑制房地产市场。最初的目标是地方政府、开发商和银行，但最近将焦点转向了外资。
这一切始于去年。政府首先出台了提高外商投资房地产企业的注册资本要求，对在中国的结售汇进行了限制。在中国政府心目中，对外汇和投机的担忧高于一切。
最新的限制性规定要求，所有外商投资房地产企业必须在中央政府备案。这一备案规定一直是强制性的，但为了实现自身吸引外资的目标，地方政府通常都会置这一规定于不顾。但如今，如果外国投资者不备案，其公司就不能注册。实际上，外国投资者已成为警察，强制地方政府遵守中央政府要求其必须遵守的规定。
从严格意义上讲，备案规定不是批准，但它赋予了中央政府一个显而易见的调控杠杆，如今这个杠杆正变得清晰起来。作为一项政策，中国政府已决定普遍放缓审批速度，并不予批准有海外贷款（包括所有的海外股东贷款）参与的外资房地产项目。
考虑到中国正常运转的银行体系，你可能会认为，这算不上多么革命性的举措。你再想一下，弗兰克表示。股东贷款是将现金汇出中国的一个极其高效率的方式，因为中国传统上严格的会计规定，通常会限制派息能力。中国的会计规定要求对建筑物折旧，这进而会影响企业的会计利润。而支付股东贷款和外国银行贷款则不必受到这些约束。对弗兰克而言，截留在华现金盈余会降低他的回报率，限制他的举债能力。
在监管障碍不断增加的情况下，弗兰克还能实现自己的投资目标吗？他认为能。他将中国市场视为一场跳高比赛。随着横杆的升高，更适合、更有经验、准备更充分的投资者相信，他们仍然能够“越过横杆”。因此世界末日的预测还为时过早。
投资者的焦点可能会转向那些获得地方政府批准仍相对较为容易的城市，转向那些将房地产和政府支持的更广泛商业活动（例如基础设施和物流）结合在一起的项目，转向可能减少现金截流问题的会计规定可能出现的变化，以及转向类似于股本融资的结构。
弗兰克也期待着那一天：在他把在中国境内筹集到的资金投资于他的交易中时，不会遇到目前影响外资的同样复杂局面。目前，他关注的是自己的下一跳。
本文作者是安理国际律师事务所(Allen & Overy)上海办事处的管理合伙人。
译者/梁艳裳
MR XU AND THE CHALLENGE OF JUMPING AN EVER-HIGHER BAR
By Simon Black
Monday, July 09, 2007
On an aircraft between Beijing and the central Chinese city of Wuhan, Frank Xu shuttles to another investment opportunity created in the construction boom that is fuelling the Chinese economy.
With his laptop armed with spreadsheets, the goal of the overseas-educated mainland Chinese fund manager who oversees an international China real estate opportunities fund, is to find safe havens for the billion-odd dollars of committed capital his fund has recently raised. It is often difficult work.
Finding good assets and reliable local partners, negotiating deals and asset management all pose challenges. He is the man who seeks to reconcile the demands of a mercurial seller with those of an investment committee and compliance team in New York. It is classic “Mr China” stuff, and it's not getting any easier.
In his back pocket, Frank has a clutch of recent Chinese legislation, known here as circulars. The names roll off the tongue like motorways. Circular 50, Circular 171 and Circular 192 all seem to lead in different directions, but away from his goal of the next closed deal.
For three years, China has been trying to damp its property market so that housing remains affordable. Initially the target was local governments, developers and banks, but recently the focus has shifted to foreign investment.
It started last year with rules raising the capital requirements for foreign- invested enterprises (FIEs) involved in real estate and restrictions on currency conversion in and out of China. Concern about currency and investment speculation is paramount in the minds of authorities.
The latest restrictions require all real estate FIEs to file with the central government. This filing has always been mandatory but local governments routinely ignored the requirement in the quest to fill their local foreign investment targets. Now, however, a foreign investor cannot register its company unless the filing is made. In effect, foreign investors have become policemen enforcing rules the centre requires the localities to abide by.
The filing requirement is not strictly an approval but it gives the centre an obvious lever of control, and that lever is now becoming clear. The government has decided as a matter of policy to slow down approvals generally and withhold approvals for foreign-invested property projects that incur overseas lending, including any overseas shareholder loan.
Not that revolutionary, you may think, given China's functioning banking system. Think again, Frank says. The shareholder loan was a particularly efficient means of repatriating cash out of China, since the ability to declare dividends is often constrained by China's traditionally strict accounting rules requiring the deprecation of buildings, which in turn suppresses accounting profits. Payments on shareholder loans and foreign bank loans were not subject to such restrictions. For Frank, trapping surplus cash in China eats into his returns and constrains his ability to raise debt.
With ever-increasing regulatory barriers, can Frank still make the figures work? He thinks so, viewing the market like a high jump competition. As the bar gets raised, the fitter, more experienced and better- prepared investors believe they can still “clear the bar”. So doomsday predictions are premature.
Focus is likely to shift to cities where local approvals are still relatively easy to come by, to projects that combine real estate and wider business activities (eg infrastructure and logistics) that are encouraged by the authorities, to probable changes to accounting rules that may reduce the cash trap issue, and to quasi equity finance structures.
Frank also has his eye on the day when he invests funds raised within China in his deals without the same complications affecting foreign money. For the moment, he focuses on his next jump.
The author is managing partner of the Shanghai office of Allen & Overy
美国企业收益冰火两重天
2008年04月18日
眼下，美国上市公司已开始陆续公布一季度业绩报告，而从现有情况看，不同企业的利润表现真可谓冰火两重天。
银行以及直接面向消费者的企业将痛苦地面对房价下跌和信贷收紧的影响，而许多大型企业，特别是面向其他美国公司或外国消费者的企业则依然日子不错。
周三，Coca-Cola首席执行长内维尔•伊斯戴尔(E. Neville Isdell)在电话会议上指出，最近他去了趟智利和秘鲁。“在这两个拉美国家，我见到了以前几十年从没见过的活跃景象，”他说。而IBM首席财务长马克•罗格里奇(Mark Loughridge)表示，公司在新兴市场的“业务增长非常、非常强劲”。IBM有65%的业务收入来自海外市场。
总收入中51%来自美国以外地区的谷歌(Google Inc.)周四晚间公布的业绩大大好于预期，令那些预计其一直享有的高增长将因消费支出下滑而放缓的人大跌眼镜。谷歌的业绩主要靠广告业务推动。该公司首席执行长埃里克•施密特(Eric Schmidt)在电话会议上说，我们正在密切关注消费形势，不过到目前为止，还没看到有什么影响。受最新业绩报告推动，谷歌股价在盘后交易中大涨 17%。
不过，其他公司的会议室里却全然没有这种轻松气氛。Harley- Davidson的首席执行长吉姆•西默(Jim Ziemer)周四早间在电话会议上说，就我来看，现在还难以估计美国经济何时能够恢复过来。家具制造企业Stanley Furniture Co.的首席执行长杰弗里•谢弗(Jeffrey Scheffer)周二说，现在还很难说经济是否很快就能有起色。业绩增长一直很强劲的Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.上周发布预警说，今年公司利润可能出现下降。
自十天前美国公司开始公布业绩以来，美国股市虽有起伏，但总的看下来却变化不大，显示投资者对一些银行动辄报告的数十亿美元亏损及零售商对经济前景的悲观预期已不再感到意外。投资者似乎还预计大型出口商以及针对企业用户的公司将实现良好收益。
迄今为止，标普500公司中已有大约两成公布了一季度业绩，据Brown Brothers Harriman的数据，目前这些公司的平均收益下降了22.1%。但如不包括金融机构在内，余下公司的平均收益为增长8.2%。如将已公布的公司业绩和未公布季报公司的业绩预期放在一起统计，则总体收益下降12.9%，略好于预期。如不包括金融企业，则平均收益增长9.5%。
如果资产负债状况良好的企业能保持开支水平，则美国将不至于出现就业明显下降的局面，从而避免衰退向其他领域进一步扩大，同时，房价持续下跌对其他领域企业的收益前景或许也只会产生有限影响。这将为股市最终出现回升创造有利条件。
Brown Brothers的策略师布里恩•拉什(Brian Rauscher)说，现在来看，
市场之前消化掉的收益预期太过悲观了，这跟现在的实际情况不相符。
不过，一个很大的不确定因素是，住房市场的低迷走势是否会向纵深发展，蔓延到其他诸多经济领域。在美国总体经济活动中，消费支出占大约三分之二的比重，虽然消费类企业的利润在美国企业利润总额中所占的比重要小得多。
另一个让华尔街无法释怀的问题在于，其他行业的利润会在当前季度或第三季度开始下滑，不过是在时间上晚了一些。萧条的房地产市场用了大半年时间才开始拖累消费支出。许多公司报告称，3月份的业绩要弱于前两个月。如果这一问题扩散开来，股市可能会在今年晚些时候迎来新一轮下跌。
通用电气公司(General Electric Co.)上周五将第一季度利润罕见的下滑归咎于旗下金融集团3月下旬的业绩欠佳。此消息公布引发道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数下跌257点。不过本周三英特尔(Intel Corp.)和其他公司的业绩让大家松了一口气，道指因此出现了几乎同等幅度的反弹。
在通用电气上周五召开的投资者电话会议上，该公司高层的看法透射出了两种截然相反的前景。一方面，该公司首席执行长杰弗里•伊梅尔特(Jeffrey Immelt)认为没有理由对美国经济抱乐观态度。他表示，公司已经在假设美国经济会非常困难并维持低迷状态。实际上，公司已经在为GE消费者金融(GE Money)美国业务的恶化作打算。
然而在海外市场，通用电气作为基础建设市场的重量级成员，面前却是另一番景象。该公司首席财务长看到了“庞大的国际需求”。
至于制造业，前景还算不错。以伊顿（集团）公司(Eaton Corp.)为例，作为一家综合制造商，其产品涵盖输配电、水利、卡车和汽车零部件等诸多领域。该公司首席财务长理查德•费隆(Richard Fearon)表示，在出口需求增长的带动下，制造业的处境会比美国其他行业好一些，这与2000和2001年的情况稍微颠倒了过来。
而这种乐观的假定是基于这样一种推断得出的，那就是全球经济强劲和弱势美元这两个因素共同发挥作用，将足以在美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)的一连串降息产生效果前支撑起整个美国经济。美元走弱会降低美国商品的出口价格，从而提高美国公司海外业务的利润。
股市在第一季度下跌8%后，股价水平似乎与公司业绩更匹配了。据Reuters Estimates称，标准普尔500指数成份股公司的每股收益目前预计将下降13.8%，而1月1日时市场的普遍预期是会增长4.7%。
据Brown Brothers称，总体而言目前已公布业绩的金融类公司第一季度的收益下降了62%，不过这一降幅大体符合预期。而对摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)和富国银行(Wells Fargo & Co.)之类的公司而言，情况比预期的还要好些。
尽管企业上半年收益会下降，但一些分析师预测，第三季度和第四季度的利润将大举反弹。他们认为，引领反弹的将是金融股及制造和销售非必须消费品的公司，汽车和家俱都属于这类商品。据Thomson Reuters称，在这类反弹的带领下，标普500指数成份股公司第三季度的利润将回升18%，而全年利润有望实现14.7%的增长。
经营商品运输业务的CSX Corp.经常有机会了解许多行业的生存境况。该公司首席运营长托尼•英格拉姆(Tony Ingram)周三上午在电话会议上说，如果你在汽车、房地产或相关的行业，那可麻烦了。如果是在制造管道的金属行业，那生意相对还算不错。不过，要是在与经济强劲面有关的某些农业关联行业，那生意会更好。
Tom Lauricella
本文涉及股票或公司
可口可乐公司
英文名称：Coca-Cola Co.
上市地点：纽约证交所
股票代码：KO
通用电气公司
英文名称：General Electric Co.
上市地点：纽约证交所
股票代码：GE
International Business Machines Corp.
上市地点：纽约证交所
股票代码：IBM
Harley-davidson Inc.
上市地点：纽约证交所
股票代码：HOG
CSX Corp.
上市地点：纽约证交所
股票代码：CSX
伊顿（集团）公司
英文名称：Eaton Corp.
上市地点：纽约证交所
股票代码：ETN
Google Inc. (Cl A)
股票代码：GOOG
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.
股票代码：BBBY
英特尔
英文名称：Intel Corp.
股票代码：INTC
Earnings Show Split Emerging In Economy
2008年04月18日
As first-quarter corporate earnings reports begin to roll in, a stark picture is emerging of an economy on two tracks.
Banks and companies that sell directly to consumers are grappling with the impact of falling home prices and tightening credit. But many big businesses, especially those that sell to other U.S. companies or to customers abroad, are proving resilient.
On Wednesday, Coca-Cola Co. Chief Executive E. Neville Isdell noted during the company's conference call that he had taken a recent trip to Chile and Peru. 'There's a vibrancy in Latin America that I don't think we've seen in decades,' he remarked. At International Business Machines Corp., which derives 65% of its business from outside the U.S., Chief Financial Officer Mark Loughridge said the firm posted 'very, very solid growth' in emerging markets.
And late Thursday, Google Inc., which makes 51% of its revenues outside the U.S., reported much stronger than expected results. The company dashed recent concerns that its remarkable growth -- ba<x>sed largely on advertising -- would be slowed down by the consumer downturn. 'We've looked at this really carefully and we do not see an impact as of this time,' Google's CEO, Eric Schmidt, said in a conference call. The market responded by pushing Google's stock price up 17% in after-hours trading.
In other boardrooms, though, the mood has been decidedly less buoyant. Discussing earnings results on a Thursday morning conference call, Harley-Davidson CEO Jim Ziemer said: 'From my vantage point, it is unclear when the U.S. economy will recover.' At furniture manufacturer Stanley Furniture Co., Chief Executive Jeffrey Scheffer said on Tuesday that 'it is just hard to see things getting a whole lot better anytime soon.' Executives at Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., once known for consistently strong earnings growth, warned last week that profits would fall for the year.
The U.S. stock market, while volatile, has effectively been flat since companies began to report earnings 10 days ago -- a sign that investors are no longer surprised by the multibillion-dollar losses being posted by banks or retailers' grumblings about bleak outlooks. Investors also seem to expect healthy earnings from big exporters and companies that make everything from tech gear to machinery that is sold to other businesses.
Thus far, roughly 20% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported, and overall first-quarter earnings are down 22.1%, according to Brown Brothers Harriman. But excluding financials, earnings are up by 8.2%. If the actual reported earnings are combined with estimates for the remaining companies, earnings are coming in slightly above expectations, at a 12.9% decline. Excluding financials, they're up a healthy 9.5% Brown Brothers says.
If companies, which overall have strong balance sheets, can keep spending, the economy could yet avoid the kind of job cuts that would extend the downturn. It also means that a continued decline in home prices might have only a limited effect on the broader corporate earnings outlook. That would potentially allow stocks to finally climb higher.
'The market was beginning to be priced for a much worse earnings picture . . . and that doesn't seem to be the case right now,' says Brian Rauscher, strategist at Brown Brothers.
The big unknown, however, is whether the housing market slowdown will spread more deeply into the overall economy. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of American economic activity, though consumer-related companies account for a much smaller portion of corporate earnings.
One nagging worry on Wall Street: Earnings in other sectors could begin to suffer declines -- albeit delayed -- in the current period or in the July-September quarter. It took the better part of a year for the weakness in the real-estate market to cause a pull back in consumer spending. Many companies reported that March appeared to be weaker for them than January and February. If the problems do spread, the stock market may be vulnerable to a fresh round of declines later in the year.
General Electric Co., on Friday, blamed a late March slowdown in its finance group for its rare earnings shortfall. The news precipitated a 257 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But reassuring results from Intel Corp. and others on Wednesday hoisted the Dow industrials back up by virtually the exact same amount.
In a conference call with investors Friday afternoon, the view from GE's corporate headquarters reflected the polarized outlook. On the one hand, CEO Jeffrey Immelt saw little reason to be optimistic about the U.S. economy. 'We assume that the economy is going to be very tough and will remain tough,' he said, adding that 'we have actually allowed for a worsening of the U.S. consumer in our GE Money business,' which includes consumer-lending products.
And yet overseas,where GE is a big pla<x>yer in the building of infrastructure projects, it's a different story. There, GE's chief financial officer sees 'tremendous global demand.'
At Eaton Corp., a diversified manufacturing company whose reach includes products for electrical power distribution, hydraulics and truck and automotive parts, there was comfort with the outlook for manufacturing. 'Growth in exports . . . will tend to put the manufacturing sector in better stead than some other parts of the U.S. economy,' said Richard Fearon, Eaton's chief financial officer. 'So this is a little bit the opposite of what happened in 2000 and 2001'
The logic behind the optimistic scenario goes something like this: the combination of a strong global economy and a weak dollar -- which makes U.S. goods cheaper abroad and translates into bigger profits on earnings from outside the U.S. -- will be enough to hold the economy together until the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest-rate cuts have an impact.
The stock market's 8% decline in the first quarter appears to have more closely aligned stock prices with company earnings. The stocks that comprise the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are now expected to post a decline of 13.8% in earnings per share, according to Reuters Estimates. On Jan. 1, the consensus forecast was for a 4.7% increase in profits.
Earnings on financial companies that have reported so far are down 62% according to Brown Brothers, but those losses had been largely expected. In some cases, such as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., the hemorrhaging wasn't as bad as expected.
Despite the first-half losses, some analysts predict a big rebound in third- and fourth-quarter earnings. The wave, they believe, will be led by financials and companies that make and sell so-called consumer cyclicals -- such as cars or home furnishings. Such an uptick is expected to lead to an 18% rebound in third-quarter earnings and a full-year gain for S&P 500 earnings of 14.7%, according to Thomson Reuters.
CSX Corp., which is in the business of transporting goods, is in the habit of reading the pulse of many industries. 'If you're in the automotive business or the housing business or businesses related to those, you've got issues,' said Tony Ingram, CSX's chief operating officer during a Wednesday morning conference call. 'If you're in that part of the me<x>tal business that's making pipe . . ., you're in a good part of the business,' he said. But even better, he noted, are certain agricultural-related businesses, which he l<x>inked to ' a very strong part of the economy.'
Tom Lauricella
美国中产阶级生活今不如昔
2008年04月22日
如今的日子比八年前好吗？对越来越多的美国中产阶级来说，这个答案是否定的。
美国各地中产阶级的收入总是赶不上生活成本的增长。汽油、食品、医疗保健、育儿及教育成本无一不涨，人们能为自己退休后节省下来的钱变得越来越少。随着住房市场陷于萧条，许多原本打算靠房产升值而生活的人怕是要希望落空了。
不能将这一古脑都归咎于当前经济的不景气以及大宗商品价格的上涨：要知道美国中产阶级的收入已经原地踏步好几年了。有钱的人总能变得更有钱──占美国家庭总数1%的最富裕家庭在美国社会收入中所占份额目前是1929年以来最高的。
宾夕法尼亚州兰开斯特First Presbyterian教堂的牧师兰迪•里格斯(Randy Riggs)说，人们的日子一年不如一年，大家都在苦熬着。他说，五年前自己还能为教堂制定一些慈善行动计划，并有望通过募捐实现这些计划，但现在可不敢作此奢望了。里格斯谈到，他最近搁置了一项翻修教堂小礼拜堂的计划，因为他觉得自己筹不到足够的钱。
中产阶级的苦处在周二举行的宾夕法尼亚州民主党总统候选人选举中将成为关注焦点。希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)都在竞逐这一候选人资格。两人目前正在宾州各地拉票。他们都在向选民重复一个简单的主题：选我吧，我能让美国中产阶级再度过上好日子。
经济衰退常常会降低中产阶级的收入，搞坏他们的心情。但在始于2001年的这轮经济扩张中，这两样坏东西却不同寻常地落在了中产阶级头上。经济处于长期扩张状态下发生这种事至少40年来还是头一次。其主要原因是：美国那些最富有家庭从经济繁荣中获得的好处大大超过了其人数占美国总人口的比例。
经济学家托马斯•皮克提(Thomas Piketty)和伊曼纽尔•赛斯(Emmanuel Saez)分析美国国税局(Internal Revenue Service)的统计数据后发现，经通货膨胀因素调整后，美国收入最高的那1%人口其收入年增幅在2002至2006年期间达到11%。而其余99%的美国人这期间的收入年增幅不足1% 。
麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)的经济学家弗兰克•利维(Frank Levy)说，如果所有人的收入都在增长，只不过富人的收入增长更快些，那么收入分配不公就不是什么大问题。而如果大多数人的收入没有增长，那么收入分配不公的严重性就会大大凸显出来。
某种意义上说，美国中产阶级的日子确实比8年前好过了。拜布什总统减税所赐，他们的税赋有所减轻。美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)的数据显示，收入居中的那五分之一美国家庭实际承担的联邦税率从2000的16.6%下降至2005年的14.2%。美国2006年的暴力犯罪率也低于2000时的水平。而美国人的心脏病和中风死亡率在此期间下降了25%左右。
但美国各地都有一部分人感觉自己的日子越来越难过了。皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)最近进行的一次调查发现，41%的受访者称他们的生活好于5年前，31%的受访者称不如5年前。这一结果甚至还不及经济正日益陷入衰退的1979年，在当时进行的一项类似调查中，只有25%的受访者称他们的生活状况恶化了。
美国中产阶级在布什当选总统前就已感受到收入方面的压力。科技、贸易、教育、监管和工会等方面的形势变化早在上世纪80年代就已在侵蚀着美国部分就业者的收入。那些年中，美国不同职业人群的收入状况也发生了变化。运动员、摇滚乐明星和银行家们的收入大幅增加，而经通货膨胀因素调整后的最低工资水平却在下降。
不过，美国虽在上世纪80至 90年代期间流失了100万个制造业就业岗位，但90年代对中产阶级而言却是一段幸福时光。在1990至2000年期间，美国经通货膨胀因素调整后的收入中值增长了11%。由于电脑和科技对经济的推动作用终于显现，美国的劳动生产率大幅增长，这为顾主们给员工增加工资和获得更高利润创造了空间。到90年代末时，美国出现了就业人员不足的局面，工资水平也相应提高。相继出现的科技、投资和股市繁荣也振奋了美国人的精神，只可惜这种好日子没能长久持续。
当布什在2001年1月20日就任美国总统时，科技股泡沫已经破裂，美国经济也已步入衰退。而随后发生的911恐怖袭击事件更是给美国人的自信和安全感造成了沉重打击。
白宫发言人托尼•弗拉托(Tony Fratto)说，教育是造成美国人贫富差距拉大的原因之一。他说，美国应借助“不让一个孩子落伍法”(No Child Left Behind)等手段使更多人享受到公平受教育的机会。弗拉托还指出，在90年代的大部分时间内美国中产阶级的收入都不理想，直到1997年美国家庭的收入中值才达到1989年上一峰值时的水平。
Justin Lahart / Kelly Evans
Trapped In The Middle
2008年04月22日09:56
Are you better off than you were eight years ago? For a growing number of middle-class Americans, the answer is 'No.'
Here and elsewhere, middle-class earnings aren't keeping up with the cost of living. Rising gasoline and food prices, health bills, child-care and education costs are leaving less to set aside for retirement. With the housing market in turmoil, even the asset many had come to count on -- the value of their homes -- is threatened.
It isn't just a reflection of the current economic slowdown and rise in commodity prices: Middle-class incomes have been stagnant for several years. The well-heeled keep doing better, with the wealthiest 1% of U.S. families garnering the largest share of income since 1929.
'This is a squeezing-down cycle, and people are trying to hang on,' says Randy Riggs, pastor at First Presbyterian Church in this city in the heart of Pennsylvania Dutch Country. 'Five years ago, I had these visions of what the church could do and hoped to raise funds to do so. I can't be a dreamer at the moment.' Mr. Riggs says he recently tabled a project to renovate the church's chapel because he sensed he couldn't raise enough money.
Middle-class angst is front-and-center in Tuesday's Democratic showdown in Pennsylvania between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The two have been crisscrossing the state.Both candidates have been repeating a simple theme: Elect me and I will revive the fortunes of the American middle class.
Recessions often depress middle-class incomes and moods. What's unusual about these declines is that they occurred during the economic expansion that began in 2001 -- the first time that's happened during a prolonged expansion in at least 40 years. The main reason: The benefits of prosperity have gone disproportionately to the families at the very top.
Adjusted for inflation, income of the top 1% of earners grew at an annual rate of 11% from 2002 to 2006, according to an analysis of Internal Revenue Service data by economists Thomas Piketty of the Paris School of Economics and Emmanuel Saez of the University of California at Berkeley. Incomes of the bottom 99% grew at less than 1% annually.
'If incomes are rising for everybody, but the rich are getting better off faster, then inequality isn't much of an issue,' says Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Frank Levy. 'When people's incomes aren't rising, then inequality is a much bigger issue.'
In some ways, the American middle class is better off than it was eight years ago. It is paying less taxes, thanks to President Bush's tax cuts. The effective federal tax rate for the middle fifth of households declined to 14.2% in 2005 from 16.6% in 2000, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The rate of violent crime in 2006 was lower than in 2000. Death rates for heart disease and stroke have declined by about 25%.
Across the country, some Americans are feeling increasingly grim. In a recent Pew Research Center survey, 41% of respondents rated their lives as better than five years ago, and 31% said they were worse. That response is even glummer than in 1979, when, amid rising economic malaise, 25% of respondents to a similar survey rated their lives as worse.
Pressure on middle-class incomes pre-dates the Bush presidency. The seismic shifts in technology, trade, education, regulation and unions had eroded some workers' incomes as early as the 1980s. That decade also saw the changes in pay patterns that led to huge paychecks for athletes, rock stars and investment bankers while the inflation-adjusted value of the minimum wage declined.
But though the U.S. lost one million manufacturing jobs between 1980 and 1990, the 1990s turned out to be a good one for the middle class. Median income, adjusted for inflation, rose 11% between 1990 and 2000. As the benefits of computers and technology kicked in at long last, the growth in productivity -- or output per hour of work -- surged, allowing employers to pay higher wages and make higher profits. By the end of the decade, workers were scarce, pushing up wages. And a technology, investment and stock-market boom, unsustainable it turned out, lifted the national psyche.
When Mr. Bush took office on Jan. 20, 2001, the tech-stock bubble had burst and the nation was on the cusp of recession. Then came the 2001 terrorist attacks with their devastating blow to Americans' self-confidence and sense of security.
One source of the growing gap between rich and poor is education, says White House spokesman Tony Fratto. 'We need to raise educational attainment for more people' through efforts like the No Child Left Behind law, he says. Mr. Fratto also points out that for much of the 1990s, middle-class income languished -- it wasn't until 1997 that median household income topped its 1989 peak.
Justin Lahart / Kelly Evans
环太平洋地区通胀率飙升
作者：英国《金融时报》记者联合报道
2008年4月25日 星期五
澳大利亚、马来西亚和新加坡周三相继公布，食品和燃料价格不断上涨导致本国通胀率持续上升。上述数据增加了这三个国家货币升值或加息的可能性。
澳大利亚折合成年率的基本通胀率飙升至4%，为近17年来最高水平，新加坡的通胀率则达到26年高点。香港和马来西亚的物价涨幅较为温和，但原因只是政府对住宅等领域实施干预，并且向食品和燃料提供补贴。
澳大利亚第一季度消费者价格指数(CPI)较上年同期上涨4.2%。这一数据出乎经济学家的意料，同时加大了澳大利亚央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)在下月的货币政策会议上加息的可能性。
澳大利亚央行上月将基准利率调高至7.25%，为近12年来最高水平，也是其7个月内第四次加息。
澳大利亚财长韦恩•斯万(Wayne Swan)表示，不断上涨的价格“高得完全不能接受，它们突显了负责任预算的必要性，即将支出纳入控制之中，解决通胀和利率方面的挑战。”
澳大利亚正处于不间断增长的第17个年头，其推动力量来自煤炭和铁矿石的国内供应价格不断上涨。澳大利亚联邦银行(Commonwealth Bank of Australia)首席经济学家迈克尔•布莱泽(Michael Blythe)表示：“近期内，通胀率似乎肯定会保持在令人不安的高水平。”
新加坡3月份通胀率同比上升6.7%，反映出销售税和地产估值的提高，以及食品及燃料成本不断上涨。随着本月电价上涨，物价进一步扬升已不可避免。
分析师表示，新加坡央行可能会允许新加坡元进一步升值，以控制食品及燃料进口成本。新加坡政府预计全年通胀率将接近5.5%，但一些经济学家认为可能会达到6%。
马来西亚通胀率升至2.8%的13个月高点，但市场认为，较低的通胀数据是人为造成的，因为政府补贴压低了燃料和基本食品价格。据估计，城市地区的通胀率是全国水平的两倍。
补贴成本不断上升可能导致政府预算赤字扩大，但在上月遭受选举挫折后，政府官员不太可能减少支出。经济学家认为，马来西亚将依赖货币升值——而不是加息——来抑制进口食品和燃料价格上涨。
香港3月份通胀率放缓至4.2%，但主要原因是政府减免了季度物业税。受食品价格上涨17.2%的驱动，香港基本通胀率达到5.3%。
港元与美元的联系汇率制度限制了香港抑制通胀的能力。尽管香港经济增长强劲，但却在一直跟随美国减息。美元兑人民币汇率走弱也增加了从中国内地进口商品的成本。
荷兰国际集团(ING)驻新加坡的普拉卡什•萨克帕尔(Prakash Sakpal)表示，通胀压力将“导致香港当局调整联系汇率机制，令汇率机制能够减少而非加剧繁荣-萧条压力”。
英国《金融时报》约翰•伯顿(John Burton)新加坡、彼得•史密斯(Peter Smith)悉尼、汤姆•米切尔(Tom Mitchell)香港报道
译者/刘彦
INFLATION SURGE SWEEPS PACIFIC RIM
By John Burton in Singapore, Peter Smith in Sydney and Tom Mitchell in Hong Kong
Friday, April 25, 2008
The prospects for currency appreciation or interest rate rises in Australia, Malaysia and Singapore increased yesterday after the countries reported sustained inflation from rising prices for food and fuel.
Australia's underlying annual inflation rate surged to 4 per cent its highest level in nearly 17 years and Singapore posted a 26-year high. Price rises in Hong Kong and Malaysia were more modest only because of government intervention in such areas as housing and subsidies for food and fuel.
Australia's consumer price index rose 4.2 per cent in the first quarter from a year ago, surprising economists and increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift interest rates again when it meets next month.
The RBA last month lifted the benchmark cash rate to 7.25 per cent, its highest level in almost 12 years and the fourth rise in seven months.
Rising prices are “simply unacceptably high and they underscore the need for a responsible budget that keeps spending under control and that tackles inflation and interest rate challenges”, said Wayne Swan, Australia's treasurer.
Australia is in its 17th year of uninterrupted growth, boosted by rising prices for domestic supplies of coal and iron ore. “Inflation rates look set to remain uncomfortably high in the near term,” said Michael Blythe, chief economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Inflation in Singapore accelerated to 6.7 per cent in March from a year ago, which reflected higher sales taxes and property valuations along with rising food and fuel costs. Further price increases are in store with an increase in electricity tariffs this month.
Analysts said that the central bank would probably allow the Singapore dollar to appreciate further to curb the costs of imports of food and fuel. The government predicts the inflation rate for the full year will be close to 5.5 per cent but some economists believe that it could be 6 per cent.
Malaysia's inflation rate rose to a 13-month high of 2.8 per cent, a figure that is seen as artificially low since government subsidies are keeping down the cost of fuel and basic food items. Inflation in urban areas is estimated to be twice as high as the national rate.
The rising cost of subsidies is threatening to increase the government budget deficit but officials are unlikely to reduce outlays after the government suffered electoral setbacks last month. Economists believe Malaysia will rely on currency appreciation to curb inflation from imported food and fuel instead of raising interest rates.
Hong Kong's inflation rate slowed to 4.2 per cent in March but this was due mainly to a government waiver of quarterly property rates. The territory's underlying inflation rate was 5.3 per cent, driven by a 17.2 per cent increase in food prices.
Hong Kong's currency peg to the US dollar limits its ability to rein in inflation. Interest rates have been falling in tandem with those in the US, despite strong economic growth. Dollar weakness against the renminbi is also increasing the cost of imports from China.
Inflationary pressures will “lead the authorities to modify the peg in a way that the exchange rate regime can reduce rather than exacerbate boom-bust pressures”, said Prakash Sakpal at ING in Singapore.
作者：游客 在 海归茶馆 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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