| 作者 |
 Delete / 删 |
 |
| 所跟贴 |
Delete / 删 -- XiamenTurtle - (0 Byte) 2008-5-19 周一, 07:42 (2005 reads) |
表酱紫
头衔: 海归少校
声望: 学员
加入时间: 2004/03/02
文章: 100
海归分: 11127
|
|
|
作者：表酱紫 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
任何短期预报都要建立在科学论证的基础上，不然的话如果有人说他能用气功预报地
震，你是采用还是不采用呢？
就是按那篇硕士论文说的，也无法具体去做什么。
--‘2008前后’--是不是前后各一年，大家就从2007住防震蓬一直到2009？
--“川滇地区”--应该指川西南吧，那么云南人也住3年防震蓬？
不说别的有人能在事先预报这次地震在一周内的误差，这可是得诺贝尔奖的资格！
According to the USA Geological Site, here's their FAQ towards earthquake forecasts:
Q: Can you predict earthquakes?
A: No. Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California.
The USGS focuses their efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions.
Currently, there's no successful short-term earth quake predictions done by the US scientists;
Japan, being frequently hit be earthquakes year round, has never had a successful short term prediction;
China has the ONLY record of successful short-term prediction in 1976, when it predicted a magnitude 6 earth quake in HaiCheng. -- HOWEVER, the theory used for that prediction has then been proved mistaken and the only successful prediction in human history (unfortunately) has been rendered pure luck...
作者：表酱紫 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
-
 Delete / 删 -- XiamenTurtle - (0 Byte) 2008-5-19 周一, 07:42 (2005 reads) - 顶XIAMEN！中长期远景预测不同于短期预报 !! -- 表酱紫 - (1498 Byte) 2008-5-19 周一, 08:30 (393 reads)
|
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
