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 此乃转载，不代表本人观点。经济类。 |
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its all about rumor, also for WM. -- xiaoqian - (0 Byte) 2008-7-15 周二, 00:05 (270 reads) |
ceo/cfo
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Bank stocks were under intense selling pressure Monday as investors and analysts worried that worsening housing and credit problems could claim more banks after the failure of IndyMac Bancorp Inc.
Regional-banking shares led the decline in the financial-services sector on Monday. Among the biggest losers were National City Corp. (NCC), Zions Bancorp Inc. (ZION), Washington Mutual Inc. (WM), Sovereign Bancorp Inc. (SOV) and KeyCorp (KEY).
An exchange-traded fund tracking the regional banks, SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF (KRE), was down 6% at last check. More broadly, SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE) lost more than 5%.
IndyMac (IMB) became the largest casualty of the subprime mortgage crisis over the weekend, as federal regulators shut down the troubled California savings bank in one of the largest U.S. bank failures ever. See full story.
Financial stocks were in the red on Monday after the government this weekend said it would provide support to struggling mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). Read full coverage.
Soured loans
Richard Bove, an analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann, in a research note this weekend said investors are looking beyond IndyMac to see where the next failure could be. He suggested looking at so-called non-performing assets, including the riskiest loans on the balance sheet that are in danger of going bad.
One approach is to take the non-performing assets of a bank and divide that figure by outstanding loans. "A ratio above 5% suggests danger," Bove wrote.
"A second approach is to divide an institution's non-performing assets by its reserves plus common equity. A ratio above 40% is the danger zone," the analyst said.
Using first-quarter data, Bove calculated IndyMac's non-performing assets divided by gross loans was 10.5%, well above his cut-off for risk. Washington Mutual's ratio stood at 3.9%.
Also, WaMu's ratio of non-performing assets to reserves and common equity stood at 40.6%, according to Bove.
Overall, the data "indicate that the system is not anywhere near the danger that existed in the late 1980s and early 1990s despite all of the whining by public officials," the analyst wrote. "Perhaps, the second-quarter numbers will prove them right."
He said none of the banks and thrifts on his coverage list are in the danger zone although Washington Mutual, which is rated neutral, "is on the edge."
In March, MarketWatch reported that IndyMac was one of the financial institutions most likely to be claimed by the credit storm. See previous story.
Earnings on tap
Investors are set to digest financial results from several large banks this week and will be looking for evidence of further deterioration in credit and housing markets.
Companies set to report later this week include Citigroup Inc. (C), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK), PNC Financial Services Inc. (PNC), Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), State Street Corp. (STT), Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI), Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN) and Zions, according to Thomson StreetEvents.
Markets are forecasting more asset write-downs for the banking sector in second-quarter results.
Although investors won't fixate on earnings as much as usual "given the focus on asset quality, capital and survivability for some," consensus estimates imply a median 13% reduction in earnings-per-share from a year earlier for small-cap banks, and a 20% decline for regional banks, according to FTN Midwest Securities Corp.
"An emerging trend may be liquidity stress for less core funded banks," the analysts wrote in an earnings-season outlook late last week.
作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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