| 作者 |
 [LEH的结局]周一交易策略-----我们正在见证历史 |
 |
theoretical
[博客]
[个人文集]
头衔: 海归上校
声望: 院士
性别: 
加入时间: 2006/10/13
文章: 5521
海归分: 69567
|
|
|
作者：theoretical 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
周五琢磨过LEH的三种走法，一是被收购，卖价７元以上，没有政府介入；这应该是大大的利好，如果这样，7.15就是年的底了。第二则是政府介入，被收购，这种情况下，是短期利好，对大市是要属于兴奋剂一类。第三则是无所为，这对大盘是大大的利空。现在不用多说了，最坏的结果已经出来了，俺的GS要住进套房了。但MER的交易让人大跌眼镜，小道消息是MER让泡儿子给强卖了。MER本来也在找买家，但原计划是要３到４个月，可能的东家有MS。但泡儿子说了底牌，４８小时内必须卖了，MS说看不懂MER的账单，先撤了。本意买LEH的BAC挺身而出，买了MER，不过２９块要是cash offer就太慷慨些，很有可能是security offer，要这样，怀疑BAC的企图。
周一市场又会抽风了，没什么可多说的，俺就先在边上凉快凉快，熊市里要少做，更要少做多，大选年起伏大，惯用TA指标未必有效。股市永远有机会，不要急。看过些美国企业东西，完蛋多半是由于扩张过度，根子就是贪婪，现在的危机也是一例。所以在市场里，也要适可而止，穷寇莫追。对于金融危机，我的看法是走了三分之二，而房市，也就半程吧，等明年的ARM上来了再看，美国的根本问题俺在谈股论金里说过。看到花街上电视台大灯照在LEH的门口，对LEH的雇员，俺同情他们现在的遭遇，毕竟大佬们是不会有什么损伤的，但另一方面，出来混还是要还的，拿了那么多年的红包，也未必全是凭本事挣来的，就当是一场游戏一场梦吧。 
Kurt Wilberding
Merrill Lynch Chairman and Chief Executive John Thain leaving the meeting at the New York Federal Reserve on Saturday, Sept. 13.
Without such support, Barclays PLC and Bank of America, the two most interested buyers, walked away. On Sunday night, Bank of America was close to striking a deal to buy Merrill Lynch for about $44 billion, or $29 a share. Lehman was working on a possible bankruptcy filing.
As worries spread across Wall Street that Lehman wouldn't survive, brokerage firms, hedge funds and other traders moved to disentangle themselves from trades with Lehman. When hopes of a potential sale dimmed, a quiet Sunday on Wall Street turned into a mad rush. Executives and traders hurried to their offices or worked their phones to unwind outstanding contracts with Lehman and to gauge their overall exposure.
A sense of foreboding gripped the Street as top executives feared collateral damage from a Lehman liquidation. Attention turned to Merrill Lynch, which boasts the largest force of retail brokers, and to American International Group Inc., the insurance giant. Both firms have seen their stocks get hammered, and their managements spent the weekend trying to come up with plans to reassure the markets.
"Monday will be a day of reckoning for the financial markets," said Carlos Mendez, senior managing director of ICP Capital, a boutique investment firm in New York. On Sunday, he said, "it was like a fire alarm went off and people ran in all directions."
AIG executives spent the weekend trying to raise cash, either from asset sales or a capital infusion from private-equity firms, or both. AIG executives were meeting with regulators to see if they could transfer capital from some of its subsidiaries to the holding company.
Merrill, whose retail brokerage force is the largest in the country and is known as the "thundering herd," quietly engaged in discussions with Bank of America, whose retail bank branches stretch coast to coast. Wall Street executives said the Federal Reserve may be involved in orchestrating the sale, figuring that it was "better to save the relatively healthy patient instead of the dying one," said a lawyer involved in the discussions.
"We are in uncharted waters here," said a top executive of a big bank. "If Merrill can pull off a deal this weekend, that would certainly help."
The U.S. dollar, which had strengthened in the past few weeks, fell against all four of its major rivals on Sunday -- the euro, the Swiss franc, the U.K. pound and the Japanese yen.
Some executives involved in the Lehman discussions held out hope that an 11th-hour reprieve would materialize. Under one scenario aimed at limiting the ripple effects of Lehman's demise, a group of about 15 banks were in discussions Sunday to pool about $100 billion, which would be used to buy assets of the battered securities firm, according to one person familiar with the situation. Details were being finalized Sunday night. One possibility is that the Federal Reserve will support the move by opening its wholesale-borrowing window and relaxing collateral requirements for borrowers.
JOIN A DISCUSSION
How long will it be before the financial sector is stabilized, and what will it take to help bring that about? How should investors respond in the meantime? Share your thoughts.Lehman, a 158-year-old firm that started as an Alabama cotton brokerage, and Merrill, known by its trademark bull logo, have been pillars of Wall Street for much of the last century. With the demise this spring of Bear Stearns, three of the Street's five major independent brokers could end up disappearing, leaving only Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
"We have never seen anything like this," said analyst Glenn Schorr, who covers the investment banks for UBS AG. "There have been tough situations like Long-Term Capital Management and the crash of 1987, but the problem here is there is leverage in the securities under the microscope and in the banks that own them. And to try and unwind it all at once creates a one-way market where there are only sellers, and no buyers."
The convulsions could lead to even tighter credit, higher borrowing costs and moribund capital markets, as securities firms and commercial banks try to further limit risk and preserve capital. Those moves could cause the U.S. economy to slow further.
The future of about 25,000 employees at Lehman and an additional 60,000 at Merrill is up in the air. Lehman's work force already has shrunk by about 3,000 in the past year. If the firm essentially goes out of business, most of the remaining employees are likely to lose their jobs. That would deal another blow to New York City's economy, resulting in lower tax revenues on personal income, real-estate transactions and corporate income.
The damage on Wall Street is the latest consequence of a storm that began last year with the sharp decline in American housing prices and losses on loans and other assets tied to home values. Massive capital infusions have failed to stem write-offs and losses, and financial firms are running out of options to escape the damage.
Regulators and others were preparing for a chaotic Monday. The New York Stock Exchange prepared contingency plans over the weekend to reassign the approximately 200 blue-chip stocks that Lehman's specialist unit trades, according to people familiar with the matter. If Lehman is forced into liquidation, the exchange will likely transfer the stocks to one or more of the remaining specialist firms, most likely using the same technology and staff that currently trade the stocks.
Dozens of Wall Street desks have trades with Lehman. As word spread that the Barclays deal was falling apart, worries that the company could be thrown into bankruptcy mounted, and traders labored to get out of those over-the-counter contracts.
作者：theoretical 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
-
 [LEH的结局]周一交易策略-----我们正在见证历史 -- theoretical - (6624 Byte) 2008-9-15 周一, 11:15 (2181 reads)
|
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
