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 爽歪歪,界不系梦吧? 黄金!!! (图) |
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爽歪歪,界不系梦吧? 黄金!!! (图) -- JACKSAILOR - (203 Byte) 2008-9-18 周四, 09:25 (1735 reads) |
theoretical
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作者：theoretical 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
With all the bad news going on, then there is news that treasury printed $40 bils bill for FED... This is actually really bad.
OK, FED has balance sheet of 800 bils treasurys, with 300-400 bils committed for all the crazy facility (TAF, PDCF, or whatever creative terms), there should still be 300-400 bils left, why whould it need short term cash??
Well, it seems what left over is just long term paper.(5yr notes, 10 yr notes), no way to sell those for cash,(or the whole mortgage rate is to da the moon) .. so FED is running out of cash or short term paper!... What does that mean? What happens if WM fails, this stupid thing's asset is so poor, when FDIC steps in, it will wipe out FDIC's money and it has to borrow from FED...but FED is out of money. ohh... there is probably many more regional banks will fold and the loss to close them are much higher than the historical 1-2%... where to get the cash?
You think market like this?
OK, how about treasury just keep printing if needed? then are we going on to the hyperinflation route. Well, that's diaster, no contruy has successfully pull itself out of debt problem by hyperinflation, rather it will get huge unstability. For US, it would means shut down of the foreign finance immediately. and dump of all their papers...
Don't take the comments " FED save 2F, it's historical event.. the game is different....." without more thinking.
NO freaking way... the game is different right when US get into such a big asset bubble... The bubble is so big that when it bursts it will blows away IB, FED, US and most of the world with it.
作者：theoretical 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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