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主题: [veggie birdy noisy] ^VIX and DOW
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作者 [veggie birdy noisy] ^VIX and DOW   
strawhat2tiny2tiny
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加入时间: 2008/09/13
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文章标题: [veggie birdy noisy] ^VIX and DOW (1090 reads)      时间: 2008-9-18 周四, 19:34   

作者:strawhat2tiny2tiny海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com

I read a post, and find that people are looking at the trend of ^VIX .
^VIX is probably an important indicator.

Here is result of searching ^VIX definition from the web:
^VIX shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. This volatility is meant to be forward looking and is calculated from both calls and puts. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge".

What does HIGHEST ^VIX actually mean?

2-1998 VIX 18.55 DOW 8545.71
8-1998 VIX 44.28 DOW 7539.06

8-2000 VIX 16.84 DOW 11215.09
10-2001 VIX 33.56 DOW 9075.13
3-2002 VIX 17.40 DOW 10403.94
10-2002 VIX 32.64 DOW 8663.50
09-2004 VIX 13.34 DOW 10080.26
01-2007 VIX 10.42 DOW 13621.69
10-2007 VIX 18.53 DOW 13930.00
Yesterday VIX 36.22 DOW 10609.66

^VIX used to be at 44 level in 1998, I am guessing it is a reaction to the Asian Financial Crisis. I could be wrong. That is "Asian" financial crisis.

Since 2000 ^VIX has never passed 40.
How serious is the trouble this time?
The government tried to prevent panic.

But will ^VIX at 44 level come this time like it did in 1998?
If it is a Yes, how far would the lowest point away from 10600?

18.53 to 36.22 to 44 to 44+
13930 to 10609.66 to X to Y

could X be around 9000 looks reasonable?

作者:strawhat2tiny2tiny海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com






上一次由strawhat2tiny2tiny于2008-9-19 周五, 01:09修改,总共修改了1次





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