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[原创]再来谈谈澳币 -- pirate - (835 Byte) 2008-10-06 周一, 10:54 (2736 reads) |
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作者：pirate 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Mon, 6 Oct 2008 05:10:00 GMT
* Australia dlr dives to 2-year low on US$, 4-year low on yen
* Commodity currencies hammered by worries on global growth
* Bonds jump on expectations of a bold rate cut on Tuesday
SYDNEY, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar was slammed lower on Monday as fears for the health of the global economy slugged commodity prices and fuelled expectations local interest rates will have to be chopped to support growth at home.
Bond futures extended their safe haven surge on intense speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut the 7.0 percent cash rate by an aggressive 50 basis points at its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday, and ease further before year-end.
"The RBA has to do something pretty big to offset the tightening in markets, and 50 basis points is really just the start," said Tony Morriss, senior currency strategist at ANZ.
"On top of that you have risk aversion and the broader concern about world growth and what that means for commodity prices," he added. "It's started what looks like a whole new phase of Aussie weakness."
Australia is a major exporter of resources, so any slowdown in global demand would be a stiff headwind for the economy.
The Aussie dollar dived as deep as $0.7445 AUD= at one stage, a drop of almost 4 percent from $0.7737 late in New York on Friday and the first break under 75 cents since October 2006.
Traders reported waves of stop-loss selling on the break of key chart support at $0.7675, a low from August last year, while Japanese investors dumped it for the safety of the yen.
The Aussie tumbled all the way to 76.60 yen AUDJPY=R, down nearly 5 percent from 81.45 late on Friday and at depths not seen since January 2005.
The latest lurch lower brought the Aussie's losses in the last three months to more than 22 U.S. cents and 26 yen as the intensifying credit crisis sent investors fleeing to the safety of the yen and short-term U.S. Treasury debt.
The credit rot spread in Europe on Monday as Germany and Denmark guaranteed bank deposits to prevent a panic, while EU financial leaders argued over whether to establish a bailout fund for euro zone banks [nCRISIS].
The outlook for world economy had already taken a turn for the worse after Friday's dismal U.S. payrolls report [nN03328200], which was bad for commodities and for open economies like Australia that rely on resource exports.
Oil slid around $2 to $91.94 0#CL: and some prices for coal, one of Australia's biggest export earners, fell 6 percent.
The rush from risk again benefited Australian bonds, with short-term futures climbing to heights not seen since July 2003. Three-year bond futures YTTc1 shot up 0.115 points to 95.185, while the 10-year bond contract YTCc1 rose 0.16 points to 94.87.
Likewise, bill futures 0#YBA: powered ahead as the market fully priced in CSRBA=CSAU a cut of 50 basis points from the RBA on Tuesday and a total 165 basis points of easing in the next 12 months
作者：pirate 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由pirate于2008-10-06 周一, 18:35修改，总共修改了1次
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 [原创]再来谈谈澳币 -- pirate - (835 Byte) 2008-10-06 周一, 10:54 (2736 reads) - 请教 -- haoxuetu - (112 Byte) 2008-10-07 周二, 11:44 (420 reads)
- [转帖]Aussie dollar hammered, bonds surge on global gloom -- pirate - (3060 Byte) 2008-10-06 周一, 13:59 (356 reads)
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