| 作者 |
 我怎么觉得这是件好事呢？ Morgan, Goldman to convert to traditional bank |
 |
| 所跟贴 |
华尔街危机专题 -- 游客 - (3411 Byte) 2008-9-22 周一, 14:23 (893 reads) |
tahiti
[博客]
[个人文集]
游客
|
|
|
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Industrials Drop 680 After Late Collapse
2008年10月10日10:23
The stock market's collapse accelerated Thursday as bank lending remained stubbornly clogged and investors remained unwilling to hold anything except cash and government debt, no matter how tiny the returns for doing so.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined for a seventh straight day, plunging 678.91 points, or 7.3%, to 8579.19. Blue chips last dipped below the 9000 level five years ago. Thursday's fall was the Dow's third-worst all time in point terms and 11th worst in percentage terms. During its recent losing run, blue chips have fallen by a startling 20.9% and are down 39.4% from their record high, which was hit exactly one year ago.
Translating the day's losses into dollar terms, the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000, a proxy for the total U.S. stock market, lost $872 billion in market capitalization on Thursday, $2.5 trillion over the last seven trading sessions, and $8.3 trillion since the all-time high it hit last October.
'This is indiscriminate selling,' said trader Todd Salamone, of Schaeffer's Investment Research, an analysis and asset-management firm in Cincinnati. 'Not until there are massive improvements in the credit markets are we likely to see this really end.'
Among the Dow's components, General Motors shares plunged 31% after the auto maker's credit ratings and those of its financing unit were put on watch for downgrade by Standard & Poor's. The Dow's financial components suffered as well, with Citigroup dropping 10% and Bank of America falling 11.2%. Exxon Mobil shares fell 11.7% after the front-month crude-oil futures contract settled at $86.59, the lowest settlement since Oct. 23, 2007. Investors worry economic aftershocks from the credit crisis will curb demand for fuel.
Investors are generally skeptical that the vast sums of government money that are being pumped into the financial system will do much to unfreeze the credit markets. Economists fear that with companies frozen out of short-term funding sources, a severe recession could result. Markets are beginning to price in such a scenario, analysts say.
'Every single business in the world needs working capital,' said strategist Doug Peta, of the New York portfolio-management firm J. & W. Seligman & Co. 'You need to spend money to make something before you can sell it, which is what generates your profits, which is what drives the stock market. That's why the stress in short-term funding is the crux of the market's problem right now.'
According to data from the British Bankers' Association, overnight U.S. dollar Libor fell slightly compared to Wednesday's fixing. But longer-term funding pressures tightened. The key three-month Libor rate rose to 4.75% from 4.52%.
Those rates are key to setting the prices of credit that banks charge their clients, including companies whose activities drive growth in the broader economy.
Other major stock yardsticks plunged. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.5% to 1645.12. The small-stock Russell 2000 tumbled 8.7% to 499.20. The S&P 500 shed 7.6% to close at 909.92. All of its sectors posted big losses, ranging from a 3.3% drop in technology to a 14.4% slide in energy. The S&P financials were off 10.4%.
Strategist Jim Paulsen, of Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis, said the fear that has seized the market lately may be an unintended, self-fulfilling consequence of recent efforts in Washington to pass a $700 billion rescue of firms saddled with illiquid mortgage securities.
'To sell the bailout to the public, everyone from the President on down had to go out and tell people how bad everything was, that the world was coming to an end,' said Mr. Paulsen. 'Ever since, people's expectations about the economy have gotten worse and worse and worse, and their reaction to each new action to fix the problems has gotten worse and worse and worse.'
Wall Street's few remaining giants suffered deep share declines on Thursday. Morgan Stanley, which along with rival Goldman Sachs Group abandoned the independent brokerage model a few weeks ago to convert itself into a deposit-taking institution, plunged 26%. Merrill Lynch, which has agreed to be sold to Bank of America, also dropped 26%. Goldman shares were down 10%.
Another company highly dependent on free-flowing credit markets -- student-loan giant SLM -- declined 19%. Asset manager Legg Mason plunged 25% and bond insurer Ambac Financial Group fell 29%. Insurer Prudential Financial fell 23%. With so many companies experiencing such steep skids, the market's fear gauges leapt. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index soared by 11% to 63.92.
Long-term Treasury prices fell. The 10-year note shed 1-2/32 to yield 3.785%. The 30-year bond was off 1-16/32, yielding 4.121%. The dollar strengthened against major overseas rivals. The euro cost $1.3654, down from $1.3667 late Wednesday. One dollar fetched 100.96 yen, up from 99.84 yen.
Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners, hoped that the 9000 level would hold as a low for the Dow, signaling the crisis of confidence had run its course. Instead, it now appears the bloodletting could continue for days longer, at least.
'It's getting to a point where it's every man for himself,' said Mr. Cardillo. 'When fear reaches that level, you're getting close to a bottom. But we're clearly not there quite yet.'
Peter A. McKay
2008年10月10日10:23
美国股市周四加速下滑，主要是因为银行信贷仍然如一潭死水，哪怕回报再低，投资者也依旧只愿持有现金和国债。
道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘暴跌678.91点，至8579.19点，跌幅7.3%；股指已经连续第七个交易日收盘下挫，5年来首次跌破9000点大关。当日道指创下历史第三大点数跌幅和第11大百分比跌幅。在近期这轮跌势中，道琼斯指数累计下挫了惊人的20.9%，较大约一年前创下的历史高点回落了39.4%。
追踪美国整体股市的道琼斯威尔希尔5000指数(Dow Jones Wilshire 5000)周四市值损失了8,720亿美元，过去七个交易日蒸发了2.5万亿美元，自去年10月创下历史高点以来市值共损失了8.3万亿美元。
纳斯达克综合指数收盘跌5.5%，至1645.12点。罗素2000指数跌8.7%，收于499.20点。标准普尔500指数跌7.6%，收于909.92点。该指数追踪的各个类股均大幅走低，科技类股、能源类股及金融类股分别重挫了3.3%、14.4%和10.4%。
英国银行家协会(British Bankers' Association)提供的数据显示，隔夜美元伦敦银行同业拆息(Libor)较周三定盘价微幅走低，但较长期融资的成本压力有所上升。关键3个月期Libor从4.52%升至4.75%。
上述利率在帮助银行确定放贷利率时非常重要，而那些为整体经济增长带来推动作用的公司均在银行放贷客户名单之列。
道指成份股中，通用汽车(General Motors)暴跌31%，此前标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)将通用汽车及其金融子公司的信用评级列入负面观察名单。
道指金融类成份股悉数下挫，花旗集团(Citigroup)跌10%，美国银行 (Bank of America)跌11.2%。
埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)下跌11.7%，此前近月交割原油期货合约结算价报每桶86.59美元，为2007年10月23日以来最低水平。投资者担心信贷危机给经济带来的冲击会拖累石油需求走软。
另一家高度依赖信贷市场之自由流动的学生贷款业巨头SLM股价重挫19%。资产管理公司Legg Mason大跌25%，债券保险商Ambac Financial Group跌29%，保险企业保德信金融集团(Prudential Financial Inc.)也下挫了23%。由于有如此多的公司股价跳水，反映市场恐慌程度的指标大幅上升。芝加哥期权交易所波动指数升11%，至63.92。
长期美国国债价格下滑。
10年期国债跌1-2/32，收益率报3.785%，
30年期国债跌1-16/32，收益率报4.121%。
美元兑其他主要货币走强。
欧元从周三尾盘的兑1.3667美元跌至1.3654美元；
美元从兑99.84日圆涨至100.96日圆。
Peter A. McKay
2008年10月11日
美国股市周五收盘走低。道琼斯指数下跌逾100点，盘中波动区间达1000点。
周五道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘跌128点，至8451.19点，跌幅1.5%，本周累计跌幅达18%。这是道琼斯指数112年历史上表现最差的一周，情况之糟甚至超过了1987年“黑色星期一”的一周和1929年的任何一周。道指周五的收盘点位创下2003年4月25日以来的最低水平，并在盘中跌破8000点关口，这是道琼斯指数自2003年4月1日以来首次跌破该点位。目前道琼斯指数较去年10月时的峰值已下跌40%，这是20世纪70年代以来最为严重的一个熊市。
标准普尔500指数跌10.7点，至899.22点，跌幅1.18%，这是该股指自2003年4月25日以来首次收于900点下方。本周也是标准普尔500指数自1933年7月22日当周以来表现最差的一周。目前该股指较去年10月时的峰值跌43%，过去三周的累计跌幅达28%。
纳斯达克综合指数涨4.39点，至1649.51点，涨幅0.27%。本周纳斯达克综合指数累计跌15%，为“9.11”恐怖袭击事件后表现最差的一周。
各国政府及央行的大力举措并未能增强银行相互间的信任度。除银行业命运及金融市场稳定性之外，企业与消费者的融资也要取决于银行间信任的恢复。目前各基金及散户投资者都在抛售股票以寻求止损，进而导致最初由信贷危机引发的股市下滑状况进一步加剧。
纽约证交所成交量超过111.6亿股，创有史以来最高水平。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)跌2.77美元，至9.68美元，跌幅22%。三菱UFJ金融集团(Mitsubishi UFJ Financial)本周再度重申了将向摩根士丹利注入资金的意愿，但部分交易员却似乎将此忽略一边，或许是受到此前其他华尔街银行出售给海外机构的计划泡汤影响。
Wachovia收盘涨1.55美元，至5.15美元，涨幅43%，对市场尾盘反弹起到推动作用，主要受富国银行(Wells Fargo)赢得对该行的收购战提振。标准普尔公司(Standard & Poor's)上调了对Wachovia的对手信用评级。Wachovia本周累计下挫17%。
花旗集团(Citigroup)退出对Wachovia的竞购，其收盘上涨1.18美元，至14.11美元，涨幅9.1%，本周累计下挫23%。
纽约商交所十一月轻质低硫原油期货结算价跌8.89美元，至每桶77.70美元，跌幅10.3%，创2007年9月10日以来最低水平。
ICE期货交易所十一月布伦特原油期货结算价跌8.57美元，至每桶74.09美元，跌幅10.4%。
十一月RBOB汽油期货结算价跌22.03美分，至每加仑1.8070美元，跌幅10.9%，创2007年2月份以来新低。
十一月取暖油期货结算价跌20.86美分，至每加仑2.2100美元，跌幅8.6%，创12个月新低。
随着经济增长出现全球性放缓，石油市场需求状况面临严重威胁。国际能源署(International Energy Agency, 简称IEA) 周五将2009年原油日需求增长量下调将近40%，至70万桶。
纽约商交所大宗商品部近期交割的10月黄金期货结算价上涨3.1%，至903.10美元/金衡制盎司，而在减息消息公布伊始该结算价曾一度升至924.90美元。
►2008年10月14日
道指惊天大逆转 飙升936点
道指周一收盘大涨936.42点，至9387.61点，涨幅11.1%，结束了此前连续8个交易日下挫的走势，期间道指累计下跌近2,400点，为该指数112年历史中最糟糕的单周表现。
道指30只成份股中有29只上涨，只有通用电气(General Electric)下挫了2.3%。报正与克莱斯勒(Chrysler)就合并事宜进行谈判的通用汽车(General Motors)领涨大盘，上涨了33.1%。美国铝业公司(Alcoa)和雪佛龙公司(Chevron)双双上涨逾20%，微软(Microsoft)涨18.6%，美国运通公司(American Express)涨17.9%。
监管机构一直在竭力支撑金融机构，努力缓解导致信贷市场冻结的恐慌情绪。分析师希望最近的诸多措施能够使危机最坏的部分成为过去，不过一些人警告说，经济疲软和惜贷行为可能仍会持续下去。尽管周一大幅飙升，道指较年初仍跌了29%，较2007年10月9日创下的最高收盘价14164.53点跌了34%。
标准普尔500指数飙升12%，至1003.35点。所有分类指数全线上涨，能源类股领涨，涨幅高达18.1%。还有五个标准普尔分类指数的日涨幅超过了 10%，金融类股上涨6.4%。纳斯达克综合指数上涨12%，收于1844.25点。小型股罗素2000指数涨9.2%，至570.55点。
由于信贷市场冻结、以及担心更多的企业因为缺乏融资途径而可能被推入无力偿债的境地，投资者上周纷纷逃离风险；全球有关部门周一承诺将采取进一步联合行动，为陷入困境的银行体系注资，投资者对此表示欢迎。
欧元区15国的领导人同意将为银行间贷款提供担保直至2009年，并允许各成员国政府购买身处困境的金融公司的股权。澳大利亚为银行大规模融资提供担保。英国称将向3家银行注资最多630亿美元。德国也宣布了1,070亿美元的注资计划。欧洲央行(ECB)、英国央行(BOE)和瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)宣布将向银行提供无上限贷款。
有些数据显示融资市场的紧张局面有所缓解。据英国银行家协会(British Bankers' Association)的数据，3个月期美元伦敦银行同业拆息(Libor)从上周五的4.81875%降至4.7525%。与此同时，1个月期利率从 4.5875%降至4.56%。美国周一因哥伦布日(Columbus Day)休市，没有隔夜拆借利率定价。
最近的政策举措令全球股市纷纷反弹。欧洲各大股指上扬。亚洲股指上涨，香港基准指数飙升10.2%。各大股指的上涨为纽约股市开盘前的美国市场定了一个乐观的基调。
尽管周一出现了大幅反弹，但许多华尔街的资深人士仍认为全球经济和股市在今后几个月里将会经历一段低迷时期。
康涅狄格州交易及研究机构MKM Partners的首席经济学家迈克尔•达尔达(Michael Darda)说，现在的危险是，大家将短期超卖后的回调错看成强势反弹已拉开序幕。
达尔达在周一发给客户的研究报告中警告说，从高收益率公司债券与美国国债之间的息差变动情况看，美国经济在今后两年左右的时间里仍会低迷不振，失业率最高可能会达到8%左右，而9月份的最新失业率为6.1%。达尔达说，在许多方面，我都不确定我们的经济是否为8%的失业率做好了准备。有许多家庭都有大量的抵押贷款和信用卡负债。他们只有像公司那样通过出售资产筹集现金。
芝加哥专营机构Bright Trading的合伙人布莱特在劳德达尔堡参加一个交易研讨会。他回到酒店的房间中用他的笔记本电脑进行交易，在市场反弹时卖出，然后再在市场出现短暂回调时买回。这种操作策略反映了他的看法，即尽管市场会持续振荡，并在单日内出现明显的大幅上涨机会，但长达数周或数月的更为持续的上涨条件还不成熟。
随着交易时间还剩下最后一个小时，布莱特注意到标准普尔500指数的回调幅度越来越小，每次回调从原来的6、7个点减少到2、3个点。他说，在这种情况下，我们已经不能再进行真正的双向交易了。我决定平仓离场，因为情况看起来要失控。
市场的确失控了，标准普尔和道琼斯指数在最后一小时双双上涨了近4%。但布莱特说，他并不后悔错过了周一惊心动魄的最后一小时的机会。他说，我们总是采取获利即撤的做法，特别是在市场出现如此走势，随时都有可能让你陷入深渊的时候。
由于美国国债市场周一因哥伦布日休市，一些交易员认为股市的走势并不能说明多少问题。一位交易员说，我们最近几周真正关注的是信贷问题，我们周一并没有看到通常从信贷市场上所应见到的所有信号。
在值得关注的股票中，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)完成了以90亿美元向三菱UFJ金融集团(Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group)出售21%股份的交易，其股价已较宣布此项交易前的最后一个交易日的。收盘价下跌了61%。摩根士丹利股价因此消息上涨约87%。三菱UFJ上涨了15.5%。
纽约商交所原油期货上涨3.49美元，至每桶81.19美元，涨幅为4.5%，这主要受到投机活动增多的提振，交易员发现借款变得更为容易，对将原油仅仅作为一种金融工具进行交易的焦虑情绪有所缓和。但长期需求前景依然暗淡。其它商品强劲反弹。道琼斯-AIG商品指数上涨2.7%。
美元对主要货币涨跌互现。
1欧元兑1.3583美元，高于上周五尾盘的1.3413美元。
1美元兑101.78日圆，高于上周五的100.25日圆。
Peter A. McKay
2008年10月16日
Economic Fears Reignite Market Slump
Fears of a deep recession sparked the worst drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 21 years, as retail sales tumbled, demand for commodities sank and bank earnings fell.
The latest data suggest the U.S. economy is poised to fall into its deepest recession since the early 1980s. That news, coupled with renewed signs of trouble in the all-important markets for credit, reignited the sell-off in stock markets, all but wiping out the huge gains that shares had made in Monday's rally.
The Dow dropped 733.08 points, or 7.9%, to 8577.91 as recession fears and continuing doubts about the world financial system's prospects shook investors. Wednesday's decline marked the Dow's largest percentage drop since October 1987 and the second-biggest point drop ever. The index is down 21% this month and almost 40% from its record close a year ago.
Other indexes plunged, too, including the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, which fell 9.03%. Overall, investors lost about $1.1 trillion in U.S. stock-market value on Wednesday, the second day in history that they have lost more than $1 trillion in one day.
In another sign of economic weakness, demand for the most important raw materials continued to slide, with oil and copper prices falling sharply.
With the big drop in stocks, many investors fled into safe-haven instruments like the two-year Treasury bond, which rose in price, sending its yield down to 1.6%, while the 10-year bond price rose slightly to yield 4%.
The stock market was unnerved late in the day by new fears of instability in the financial system, this time in the hedge-fund industry. Traders heard talk that hedge fund Citadel Investment Group, whose funds are down between 26% and 30% for the year, was facing margin calls. The rumors fed an already anxious market, where investors have grown worried that some big, highly debt-dependent hedge funds could fail, causing more market declines. Citadel said its financial situation remained strong.
Adding to the somber mood, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech at the Economic Club of New York warned the economy faced tough prospects despite the government's $700 billion rescue plan aimed at bolstering the U.S. financial system.
'Stabilization of the financial markets is a critical first step, but even if they stabilize as we hope they will, broader economic recovery will not happen right away,' Mr. Bernanke said. 'Ultimately, the trajectory of economic activity beyond the next few quarters will depend greatly on the extent to which financial and credit markets return to more normal functioning.'
Mr. Bernanke noted that the economy had been decelerating even before the September shock to financial markets. He ticked off a broadening list of troubles that now weigh on it: slower exports from a global downturn, nagging declines in home prices, slower consumer spending and business investment, and the time that it will take for credit markets to unfreeze after the government's dramatic steps this week.
Mr. Bernanke subtly left open the possibility of interest-rate cuts in the weeks or months ahead, noting that inflation pressures have receded, as a result of falling commodities prices and decelerating inflation expectations.
But it's far from clear how much effect further rate cuts would have. Investors have been demanding huge premiums -- known on Wall Street as spreads -- over benchmark interest rates to make loans to businesses and households. As long as these spreads remain large, the benefits of rate cuts are diminished. A big priority for now remains calming the fear that has swept through financial markets. That would make financial institutions more willing to lend at narrowed spreads.
Evidence is mounting that the U.S. is likely to experience a far worse downturn than the 2001 or 1990-91 recessions. Job losses started at the beginning of this year but started deepening last month, even before the worst of the credit crisis struck. The degree of the declines is sapping consumer incomes after a decade showing few earnings gains for most Americans.
The Commerce Department said its broad gauge of retail sales dropped 1.2% last month, a much sharper decline than in July and August. The figures followed last week's weak September sales reports by major retailers, and they confirmed that the economy was weakening before this month's market turmoil, suggesting deeper declines in the coming months. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than 70% of the U.S. economy, is likely to record declines in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
Retail sales slipped in almost every sector. Auto sales fell 3.8%, while furniture, electronics, clothing and food stores also declined. One flicker of good news was health care, which has remained relatively stable amid the broader economic downturn.
The troubles are weighing heavily on the global economy. Weak prospects around the world are pushing commodity prices sharply lower, a sign that strong demand -- which led to huge price surges earlier this year -- has abated with the economic turmoil. Crude-oil prices tumbled $4.09, or 5.2%, to $74.54 a barrel, its lowest settlement price this year.
Meanwhile, the continuing turmoil in credit markets is likely to hit the banking sector hard in the coming months. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., two of the nation's strongest banks, on Wednesday said their consumer operations are likely to worsen for months amid weaker performance of mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. J.P. Morgan, which is one of the nation's largest credit-card issuers, said charge-offs -- reflecting loans considered to be uncollectible -- represented 5% of its card portfolio compared with 3.64% in the third quarter of 2007. That's expected to grow to 6% in the beginning of next year and 7% by the end of 2009, the bank said.
The Federal Reserve's latest 'beige book' report, a summary of regional economic conditions, showed weakness across the nation into early October. Consumer spending declined, manufacturing activity dropped and several regions reported lower capital spending or reductions in capital spending plans 'due to the high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook or concerns over the availability of credit.' Real estate and construction remain particularly bleak, while banking and finance reported widespread difficulties. Among the few bright spots were agriculture and other natural resources, though drops in commodity prices since the reports were compiled could hurt those sectors.
Job losses, which started at the beginning of this year, are expected to worsen as businesses feel the credit pinch. The effects of the worsening economy were on display at retail outlets around the country.
In Seattle, 25-year-old web developer Scott Krager is curtailing his spending -- especially on eating out -- and now rarely pays full price for anything. Recently, when he needed to purchase new khaki pants after his older ones were ruined in the dryer, Mr. Kruger visited the Kohl's department store for the first time and bought two pairs using a $5-off coupon.
'Overall, you can tell that it's not 2003 or 2004 anymore,' said Mr. Krager. 'It's the first time my generation has really felt the effect of any kind of pull back,' he says.
After years of conspicuous consumption, many middle- and upper-income Americans are morphing from conspicuous consumers into cautious ones. The same competitive shoppers who used to vie for the most lavish and ostentatious items are now trying to outdo each other with their thriftiness.
The change in consumer mood could have a dramatic effect on consumer spending on everything from cars and travel to electronics, fashion and jewelry, especially heading toward the holiday season. That's a radical change from the 2001 economic slowdown when many people shopped to feel better.
In Chicago, Fanchon Simons, an avid 60-year-old shopper, says she couldn't bring herself to buy a $360 blouse that she tried on at a designer-clothing boutique last week. Ms. Simons says hasn't bought anything for herself in the past couple weeks -- and not because she can't afford it. Buying 'is not that important to me right now because of the climate,' she says. 'Maybe it's a way to be in sympathy with the rest of the people . . . or maybe it's that I don't really need anything.'
High-end consumers aren't the only ones pinching pennies or turning to window-shopping. Synetha Chambers, a 31-year-old single parent from Cedar Hill, Texas, who makes $25 an hour as a service representative for AT&T, says she has pared her grocery list to the necessities -- milk is a must, but she no longer buys soda and chips. 'And I will be honest with you, Christmas is no longer a necessity in my household,' Ms. Chambers says.
In recent weeks, a slew of forecasters have predicted that holiday spending this year is likely to be at the lowest level in nearly two decades. The National Retail Federation plans to release a survey today reporting that U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $832.36 on holiday-related shopping, up 1.9% from a year earlier. It is the lowest increase in planned consumer spending since the survey began in 2002. The survey was conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 7.
Sharply falling sales forced several national retailers, including Target Corp., Nordstrom Inc. and J.C. Penney Co., to lower profit forecasts for the fiscal third quarter ending in October. The sales falloff was particularly steep in mid-tier and luxury department stores, as shoppers stopped buying discretionary merchandise in favor of necessities such as food. As a result, discounters proved to be fairly resilient.
Sudeep Reddy / Jennifer Saranow / Ann Zimmerman
►2008年10月16日
严重经济衰退恐慌引发美股暴跌
道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数周三创下21年来最大单日百分比跌幅，主要是因为此前公布的零售额数据大幅下降，大宗商品需求走软，银行收益走低，导致市场对美国经济陷入深度衰退忧心忡忡。
最新数据显示，美国经济徘徊于自1980年代初以来最严重衰退的边缘。这一消息再加上重中之重的信贷市场再现麻烦迹象，导致美国股市重现抛售潮，几乎回吐了股市周一暴涨创下的巨大涨幅。
贝南克在周三表示，稳定金融市场的措施不会成为刺激经济立即好转的强心剂。
道琼斯指数收盘下挫733.08点，至8577.91点，跌幅7.9%；主要是因为投资者对经济衰退忧心忡忡，对全球金融体系前景的疑虑挥之不去。道琼斯指数周三创下了1987年10月份以来的最大单日百分比跌幅，点数跌幅排名历史第二位。该指数本月累计下挫了21%，较一年前创下的历史收盘高位回落了将近 40%。
其他股指周三同样暴跌，标准普尔500指数下跌了9.03%。美国股市周三整体市值蒸发了大约1.1万亿美元，为史上第二个单日损失超过1万亿美元。
另一个经济走软的迹象是，最重要的原材料需求持续下滑，石油和铜价大幅走低。
随着股市大幅下跌，许多投资者都涌向2年期美国国债等安全避风港。该品种国债价格走高，收益率跌至1.6%；10年期美国国债价格小幅走高，收益率报4%。
周三尾盘股市人心惶惶，因为投资者再次对金融体系不稳产生担忧，这次的问题是对冲基金行业。交易员们听说对冲基金Citadel Investment Group面临着追缴保证金的压力，该公司旗下基金今年以来下跌了26%-30%。此类流言加剧了市场本就焦虑不安的情绪，投资者愈加担心一些高度依赖债务的大型对冲基金可能会崩溃，从而导致市场进一步下跌。Citadel出面澄清其财务状况依然强劲。
令市场人气愈加低迷的是，美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)在对纽约经济俱乐部(Economic Club of New York)讲话时警告称，尽管政府推出了7,000亿美元救助计划以提振美国金融体系，但美国经济仍然面临着严峻前景。
贝南克表示，稳定金融市场是关键性的第一步，但即便金融市场如我们所愿稳定下来，整体经济的复苏也不会立即发生。终究，未来几个季度的经济活动走向将主要取决于金融和信贷市场能在多大程度上恢复正常运转。
贝南克指出，在9月份金融市场剧烈动荡之前，美国经济就已经在放缓了。他列举美国经济目前面临的一系列不断增加的问题：全球经济放缓导致的出口走缓，住房价格跌跌不休，消费者支出和企业投资走缓，以及在政府本周推出的宏大措施后，信贷市场解冻尚须时日。
贝南克微妙地为未来数周或数月减息预留了余地；他指出，随着商品价格持续下跌，通货膨胀预期放缓，通胀压力已经消退。
但目前进一步减息能有多大成效还远不得而知。投资者一直要求获得较基准利率的巨额溢价──华尔街所称的利差──才肯向企业和家庭发放贷款。只要这些利差居高不下，减息成效就会受到削弱。目前当务之急仍然是平定横扫金融市场的恐慌情绪。这会促使金融机构更愿意以较小的利差发放贷款。
越来越多的迹象显示美国可能会经历一场远比2001年或者1990-91年衰退更为严重的经济下滑。失业问题自今年年初就开始抬头，但从上个月开始恶化，甚至在信贷危机最严重的一波冲击出现之前。失业问题正在冲击着美国消费者收入，因为过去十年多数美国人收入增长甚微。
美国商务部预计，上个月零售额下滑了1.2%，跌幅较7月和8月明显加剧。此前，上周各大零售商已经公布了疲软的9月份销售业绩；这些数据证实美国经济在9 月市场动荡之前就已经走软，预示着未来数月还会进一步走软。今年第三和第四季度的消费者支出或将出现下滑，消费支出占据了美国经济总量的70%以上。
几乎所有零售领域销售额均出现下滑。汽车销售额下滑了3.8%，家具、电器、服装和食品零售额也同样下降。唯一的亮点是医疗领域，在整体经济走软之际，这一部门仍然保持了相对稳定。
这些问题给全球经济带来了沉重压力。全球经济的疲弱前景导致大宗商品价格大幅下跌，显示随着经济的动荡，推动今年早些时候价格飙升的强劲需求已经降温。原油价格下跌4.09美元，至每桶74.54美元，跌幅5.2%，为今年以来的最低结算价。
与此同时，信贷市场的持续动荡可能会在今后几个月中继续严重打击银行业。美国实力最雄厚的两家银行摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)和富国银行(Wells Fargo & Co.)周三称，由于抵押贷款、信用卡和汽车贷款表现疲弱，他们的消费者业务今后几个月里可能会进一步恶化。作为美国最大的信用卡发卡行之一，摩根大通称，信用卡坏账冲销额达到了应收金额的5%，高于2007年第三季度的3.64%。该行称，预计明年初这个比例将升至6%，到2009年底时达到7%。
美联储最新的关于地区经济状况黄皮书(beige book)报告显示，10月初美国经济继续表现疲弱。消费支出下滑，制造业活动下降，由于对获取信贷能力的担忧和经济前景的高度不确定性，几个地区都公布了资本支出的减少，或资本支出计划的下调。房地产和建筑业依然格外冷清，银行和金融业也称遇到了大范围的困难。为数不多的亮点当属农业和其它自然资源，不过该报告编制之后大宗商品价格的下跌可能会冲击这些行业。
今年初以来开始逐步攀升的失业率预计将随着企业感受到信贷压力而进一步恶化。经济转坏的影响也开始在美国各地的零售企业中显现出来。
在西雅图，25岁的网站开发人员斯科特•克雷格(Scott Krager)已经减少了他的支出，尤其是外出就餐的花销，他现在很少按原价购买商品。不久前，当他的旧布裤子在烘干机中烤坏之后，克雷格需要购买几条新裤子时，他首次进到廉价百货商场Kohl's中，买了两条，还用了5美元的优惠券。
克雷格说，总体而言，你能感觉到现在不是2003或2004年的时候了。这是我们这一代人首次真正感受到经济回调的影响。
在经过了多年的挥霍后，许多中高收入的美国人正逐步从大手大脚转向谨慎的消费者。过去竞相购买奢华品来炫耀的购物者现在都在努力比其他人更加节省。
消费者情绪的变化可能会对从轿车、旅游到电子产品、时装和珠宝等各种产品的消费支出产生巨大影响，尤其是在即将迎来年底假日消费季节的时期。这与2001年经济减速时许多人靠购物发泄形成了鲜明对照。
在芝加哥，60岁的购物狂西蒙斯(Fanchon Simons)说，她无法说服自己购买上周在一家专卖店中试过的标价360美元的上衣。她称，过去两三周里没给自己购买任何东西，并不是因为自己负担不起。她说，由于目前的大环境，购物目前对我来说并不重要。也许这是与其他人同甘共苦的一种方式，也许是我实际上真的什么都不需要。
高端消费者并不是唯一紧缩开支或转向欣赏店铺橱窗的人群。31岁的单身母亲钱伯斯(Synetha Chambers)在美国电话电报公司(AT&T)做服务代表，每小时收入25美元。她说，她现在只买生活必需品，牛奶是必须的，但她不再购买苏打饼干和薯片了。钱伯斯说，说实话，圣诞节在我家也不再是必不可少的了。
最近几周，不少人预测今年的假日消费可能会是近20年来最低的。美国全国零售联盟(National Retail Federation)定于周四发布的调查报告显示，美国消费者计划在假日相关的购物中平均支出832.36美元，比上年同期增长了1.9%。这是 2002年开始此项调查以来消费者计划支出的最低增幅。这项调查是在9月30日至10月7日之间进行的。
销售额的大幅下降迫使几家全国性零售商──包括Target Corp.、Nordstrom Inc.和J.C. Penney Co.──纷纷调低了截至10月份的第三财政季度利润预期。中档和奢侈品商店销售额的下滑尤为明显，因为除了食品等生活必需品之外，购物者不再随意购物了。因此，折扣零售店的表现相对稳定。
Sudeep Reddy / Jennifer Saranow / Ann Zimmerman
本文涉及股票或公司
富国银行
股票代码：WFC
摩根大通公司
股票代码：JPM
美股收盘重挫，道指创五年多新低
2008年10月25日
美国股市周五收盘大幅下挫，以跌势为本周划上句号，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数创五年新低，在追加保证金通知以及经济衰退忧虑的推动下，2008年10月美国股市的暴跌程度有可能会超越1929年10月和1987年10月的崩盘。
道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数周五收盘跌312.30点，至8378.95点，跌幅3.59%，创2003年4月25日以来收盘新低。道琼斯指数在过去的19 周中已是第15周出现下挫，这一期间的累计跌幅达到32%。单是10月份以来，道琼斯指数就累计下跌近23%。如果道指本月以该跌幅收尾，则本月的暴跌堪比1987年10月的崩盘，并且超越了1929年10月的暴跌。在本月的前18个交易日中，道琼斯指数仅有4天收盘走高。
标准普尔500指数周五收盘跌31.34点，至876.77点，跌幅3.45%，创2003年4月11日以来的收盘新低，本周累计下跌6.8%。
纳斯达克综合指数收盘跌51.88点，至1552.03点，至3.23%，触及2003年5月23日以来的最低收盘水平，本周累计下挫9.3%。
周五道琼斯指数30只成份股全部下挫，并且在10月份均走低，美国银行(Bank of America)、杜邦公司(DuPont)今日跌幅居前，通用汽车(General Motors)、美国铝业公司(Alcoa)和卡特彼勒公司(Caterpillar)过去一个月的跌幅最大。
美国银行跌1.93美元，至21.07美元，跌8.4%。许多金融股下挫，因交易员担心全球经济增长放缓会对银行产生不利影响。
National City跌68美分，至2.07美元，跌幅25%，该公司被迫同意被PNC Financial Services Group以55.8亿美元的价格收购。作为政府救助计划的一部分，美国财政部将向PNC投资77亿美元，这将有助于PNC完成这笔收购交易。
美国铝业跌58美分，至9.41美元，跌幅5.8%，本周累计下跌20%。
通用汽车跌15美分，至5.95美元，跌幅2.5%。该公司警告称，将进一步裁减白领员工。
https://www.chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081028/bus082239.asp?source=whatnews1
2008年10月27日
美国股市周一下跌，尾盘再次出现了一个月来最为常见的急跌走势，而且跌势更为迅猛，更为惨烈。
道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘下跌203.18点，至8175.77点，跌幅2.4%，创2003年4月1日以来收盘新低。盘中道琼斯指数一度上涨上百点，但尾盘表现令人失望。该指数从美东时间下午1时45分创出的盘中高点下跌了约423点，其中约有三分之一的下跌点数发生在交易的最后10分钟。
周一股市一直上下拉锯，交易员在全球衰退的最新迹象和美国金融业及房地产市场出现的良好信号之间进行权衡。但市场越从高点回落，卖盘就变得越加汹涌。一些市场人士显然是忍痛割肉，以筹集现金。
最近，此类行为常常导致蜂拥而来的抛盘。随着对冲基金和其它资金雄厚的市场人士抛出股票，满足经纪商的追加保证金要求，市场进一步下跌，迫使其他人抛售。此外，交易机构使用的许多自动程序都会获取收盘时的价格，一旦交易员开始纷纷选择卖出，这会带来更严重的瓶颈。
Nollenberger Capital Partners的交易主管托德•克拉克(Todd Clark)说，一些人一定是认为他们需要在当天交易结束前抛出部分股票。这是一种不安的表现。
标准普尔500指数下跌3.2%，收于848.92点。所有分类指数全线下跌，基础材料类股领跌，跌幅高达7.4%；能源类股跌幅为6.4%；工业类股下跌5.4%。纳斯达克综合指数下跌3%，至1505.90点。小型股罗素2000指数下跌4.8%，至448.40点。
在海外股市因对经济的担忧大幅下挫之后，美国股市开盘走低。香港恒生指数暴跌12.7%，东京日经225指数下跌6.4%，收于26年来的最低水平。投资者担心近期日圆的大幅升值可能损害高度依赖出口的日本经济。
亚洲股市的下跌促使欧洲股市走低，但欧洲股市从低点出现反弹，伦敦富时100指数跌幅收窄，最终下跌了0.7%。
美国投资者对海外股市的下跌感到惊慌，但他们的情绪因上午发布预售屋数据而出现改善。在8月份创出17年来的低点后，9月份预售屋销量增长了2.7%。预售屋销售价格中值比上年同期下跌9.1%，预售屋存量减少了7.3%。
交易和研究公司MKM Partners的首席经济学家迈克尔•达达(Michael Darda)说，新的数据令人鼓舞。但鉴于美国的经济问题是如此深重，比如失业率不断上升、消费不断减弱等，因此达达预计2009年末之前美国经济不会全面反弹。
与此同时，企业利润可能依然疲弱，从而使股市无法维持住回升势头。达达说，股市要想恢复常态需要一个漫长而缓慢的过程。
这一点在周一尾盘时得到了彰显，这时股市摆脱了胶着状态。但交易员们说，股市在收盘前最后一刻大跌是因为市场交投相对清淡，这一迹象显示还可能有更多卖家在场边观望。
Source Trading的交易员尼克•考普(Nick Kaupp)说，与最近几个交易日相比，周一尾盘的活跃程度是比较轻的。他说，感觉上仅仅是买家们离场而去，卖盘数量并没有显著增加，市场交投实际上很清淡。
世界各国的政府官员们似乎对日圆的迅速升值日益感到不安。低利率的日圆以前一直在世界范围内被用于为企业发展项目提供资金、从事一系列其他资产的投机性交易，以及从事其他类型的高风险交易。
七大工业国的财政部长们周一发表声明，警告投资者勿将日圆汇率推至过高。市场参与人士认为，这一迹象表明政府官员们有可能入市干预，以阻止日圆汇率进一步上扬。这份声明说，近来日圆的“过分波动”是对全球经济的一个威胁。
尽管有上述声明发布，日圆汇率继续跃升。日圆兑欧元和美元汇率近来双双走高。与日圆一样，美元兑其他主要货币的汇率近来也不断攀升，兑欧元和英镑都有上扬。
衡量美元相对于一篮子六种货币价值的美元指数上升了0.5%。
美国国债价格下跌。两年期美国国债跌3/32，收益率为1.553%。基准10年期美国国债的价格跌4/32，收益率为 3.693%。
在纽约市场交易时段，原油期货价格下跌1.45美元，至每桶63.22美元，黄金期货上升12.60美元，至每盎司741.70美元。道琼斯-AIG大宗商品指数上涨1.2%。
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
标签: 美国,股票,
上一次由tahiti于2008-10-28 周二, 09:52修改，总共修改了5次
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
| |
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
