| 作者 |
 关于海归的机遇的一点宏观的思考（二）！-- 有感于whoeveriam《好文章带来的另一方面的思考》 |
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关于海归的机遇的一点宏观的思考（二）！-- 有感于whoeveriam《好文章带来的另一方面的思考》 -- 安普若 - (2596 Byte) 2003-10-10 周五, 23:39 (1987 reads) |
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作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
一.你提到"国外投资到底给中国带来了多少利益?" "有多少发展的后劲?", 确实是个问题!
国外投资到底给中国带来了多少利益--- a lot. Without these investment, the booming in 1990s will not be possible. They gives technology, know-how and management techniques. 如果一个人在国企与外企干过,就知道在管理上,本土企业有多落后. 中国发展的后劲depends on private enterprises. CHINA DOES NOT LACK MONEY, LAND, HUMAN RESOURCES, it lack GOOD PUBLIC ADMINSITRATION AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR. The same Chinese human beings can do much better in US or in US firms in China, than in China or in Chinese state enterprise. Why, the problem are the management and system.
有多少发展的后劲--depends on domestic demand. Why Chinese manufacturers depends on foreign demands so much? Because domestic demands are too weak and US demands are high.
Look at EIU's statistics, there is one ratio called Domestic consumption/GDP, from 1994, China's level is always around 50% and US is always at 69%. Only Latin countries, like Spain, Italy beat US in this.
If domestic demand is strong, it can feed not only foreign manufacturers, but also domestic ones. If it is weak, then you will see domestic ones squeezed out by foreign ones, esp, if the latter is stronger in management.
The real problem is the difference between China's export advantage vs. Japan's export advantage in 1980s: Japan had all value-added stages in Japan and sold the whole products to US, while China's exports have many 三来一补business, so the only value-added part from China is the labor part(usally 5% of the products when it left manufacturing plants),
So China's export figure(esp, Guang Dong) looks huge.huge, but its pump effect on China's economy is weak.
二.关于中国制造商的成本
中国制造商的成本平均在3%到5%左右. 在竞争比较激烈的行业里, 能有3%就不错了.
--yes, actually profitability ratio is not a good benchmark for comparison, because some industries are inherently lower in profitability, and some are higher. Wal-mart's gross margin is also low, around 7%-9%, while pharmaceutical is around 15%. Another key factor is asset turnover. A better benchmark is return on asset.
Chinese firms are mainly in competitive sectors in which the net margin is naturally lower, but if it can manage well, return on assets can be high.
管理上还要精打细算才能保证不赔本! 但在新兴产业里, 中国制造商的成本控制水平太低.
--that's normal. 成本控制水平related to 1)engineering and production planning, 2)managerial accounting control. In China, Both are way behind their European and US counterparts.
他们的成本甚至比海外的公司的零售价还高! 有一次我拿了一个美国的广告给他们看, 告诉他们:"你们可以不生产了,卖别人的东西都比你们自己生产赚钱多!"
--are you using the weekly ad of the retailers from the newspaper? These are traffic-builder products sold below costs. Hi, man, you might unintentionally trick the Chinese makers. To be frank, these products must be made by other Chinese suppliers, but US retailser just sold below costs.
根据我个人的经验, 国内的企业的管理水平还是很低的（尽管比以前提高了许多）! 如果你要是从他们那里进货, 你有时看到他们水平那么凹, 竟耽误你的事情, 你甚至想去给他们当厂长去. 我就有过这种冲动!
--exactly!!!!!!
再有, 中国的制造商只是在这个"食物链"的最低段. 如果他们自己进入DISTRIBUTION领域, 对他们不见得是件好事情. 所以你们赚取70%的毛利也没什么错误.
--distribution stage has MUCH higher risk. There is political risk which does not happen in production stage. The products you ordered may be out of fashion and then get stuck in the warehouse(increased your transportation, warehousing costs and adm costs), and finally sell at low prices(lower GROSS margin later). Also the distributor has to incur marketing costs, for which the Chinese firms do not have to pay one penny!! So gross margin DOES NOT MAKE sense. It is is NET margin that really counts.
近来, 融合化synergy的概念很时髦, (融合化—— 为达到规模经济与市场综合效果，公司以垂直整合及多元化发展的方式，经营相关上游、下游产业，以及与其他公司跨国跨行业合作。)
但中国公司有多少有能力进行融合化的. 他们自己那点事情还管不好呢! 其实这也正是海归的机会！
--yes, the firms are vertically integrate into supplier segments and distributions. Some are successful in distribution, but limited to Chinese market. Wait and see.
三.利润在海外实现是回避风险的最好办法.
---YES!!! Because foregin sale, generally speaking, has less collection risk than the domestic sale in China.
别骂我汉奸, 在商言商, 这是没办法的事情! 所以说你们的决策人还是很"老道"的.
--汉奸, so what. You are good 汉奸 to help create jobs for Chinese labor. If you do not bridge it, they will wander on the streets and ready for a political unrest, so you ARE SAVING China, since China's domestic demand is so weak.
只是一些comments，供批判！
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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