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 谢吴越教主指教。 |
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哪里哪里，小教不懂别的，随口绉两句，让您见笑了。 -- 吴越 - (159 Byte) 2005-7-24 周日, 11:07 (357 reads) |
ceo/cfo
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头衔: 海归中将
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加入时间: 2004/11/05
文章: 12941
海归分: 491638
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归茶馆 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
If you don't mind, please allow me to share with you my two cents.
Biotech stocks have been hot for several years, such as dna, amgn, gild, and so forth. I had all those stocks before but sold too early!!! So if your time frame is 5-10 years, you can do some serious equity investment. Since you mentioned Merke might be a good investment candidate for your money, personally I think it is too risky. It has legitimate reasons for a giant company's stock experiencing 10 years low. I can give you details on its risky side and please keep in mind the risk/reward ratio when buying stocks.
If I were you, I will keep an eye on Pfizer (pfe). Its intrinsic value shall be around $31-$32 per share; the closing price on last Friday was $26 plus. I will consider buying it at $24-$25 level. The world's largest drugmaker had $22 billion in cash on its balance sheet in March 2005 and it generates more than $3 billion in cash flow each quarter, plus it can repatriate up to $28 billions cash reserves the company has saved in foreign countries. Despite a plethora of looming patent expirations this year, the company has some impressive branded drug portfolio. Last Thursday it announced the application with FDA for new cancer drug Sutent phase I in Aug. 2005. Pfizer markets 10 medicines with annual sales more than $1 billion each. Any drug with sales more than $1 billion is called blockbuster drug. It holds dominating positions in the areas of cholesterol control, anti-infectives, and of course in erectile dysfunction (ED) with that "magic" blue Viagra. However, the best seller in the company's pipeline is Lipitor, the number one in the world which may reach $10 billion in sales worldwide this year!!! One thing I need to add is Pfizer has the largest and the most effective salesforce in the industry.
Ok, why pfe stock price is going south from 52 week high of $33 to $26 and half? Here are the reasons and the risks you need to know: 1)competitions from other drug companies and generic drug makers; 2)heightened regulations from fda and more bargain powers from hmo for low-priced drugs; 3)Pfizer will lose $14 billion in sales in the next three years due to patents expirations from such drugs Neurontin, Diflucan, Zithromax, Zoloft and Norvasc; 4) Its Cox-2 pain reliever line, once a high growth drug, is facing severe FDA investigation, together with its Bextra and Celetrex; 5)Pfizer relies on only 5 blockbuster drugs for nearly 50% of its revenue. Anything negative unexpectively happens to those drugs will have huge adverse impact on its sales and earnings. That is why the current price is a reflection of the above-mentioned.
To buy or not to buy, or when to buy and how many shares to buy, is the question 
作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归茶馆 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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