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 [转帖] 外资蚕食中国产业调查 谁在国退洋进盛宴中狂欢-great article w/ solid analysis |
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生叔，你的问题比较难回答 -- 哈瓦那女伯爵 - (400 Byte) 2006-2-13 周一, 08:55 (608 reads) |
江海余生
头衔: 海归中尉
性别: 
加入时间: 2006/02/13
文章: 12
海归分: 4123
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作者：江海余生 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Appreciated all your comments. I did a quick research, coming back with shock, yet not suprising, findings and more questions:
1. Based on the data available, a rough valuation suggests that on a P/S basis, Carlyle’s offer significantly undervalues the XuGong Group.
a. On the company’s website, XuGong Group’s 2005 revenue is 2.1Billlion USD (RBM17 Bn).
b. Caterpillar (CAT) is currently trading at about 1.3X its 2005 sales.
c. Then let’s give XuGoug’s P/S ratio a huge discount by 50%, i.e., discounting the fact that 1) XuGong is not a world leader (though it’s a indsutry leader in the fastest growing market), 2) its financial information may not be accurate, 3) it has a problematic legacy including unprofitable businesses and overstaffed, and 4) it has also other issues.
d. So XuGong should be given a value around 1.36 billion USD based on the HALF of CAT’s P/S ratio!
e. So, how much Carlyle has offered? 375 MM USD for 85%’s share, which implies that XuGong’s worth only 441 million USD!
f. What????? So how much XuGong is undervalued? 900 MM USD, which is 7.2 Bn RMB.
2. XuGong’s not a private company, it’s stateowned, China is still a communist country, so in theorty, this is also a company by which we could claim a piece of its value. However, we don’t have the control, and we could only see it was “presented” at huge discount to foreign investment firms.
3. What we could forecast, is that, it this deal gets the green light, then 3 years later, XuGong will be sold by Carlyly to CAT at a price at least double its offer today. Let’s see…
4. If we collect all the data, and do a comprehensive analysis/valuation, the answer, I believe, would be even more shock than this simple calculation. Because just looking at the fact that XuGong’s growth during the past 6 years, (Rev more than tripled from 4 Bn RMB in 1999 to 17 Bn RMB in 2005, so you could easily determine that this company has high growth, has been profitable, and will have a promising growth perspective, even though it might have various minor problems,. Therefore it even should not be valued at a 50% discount on a P/S basis compared to CAT.
5. So this is the SOE reform we see occurring now, we’re the witness, what do we do? Foreign capitalists are collaborating with corrupted/stupid governmental officials, steeling from us, the value has been created by the people during the reform. It's far more brutal than what would occur in a Capitalist country... Those would be the very bad pages in the history books if looking back 50 years later...I couldn’t understand how this deal got approved by various departments??? There are certainly people know the truth, but…
6. What can we expect? Hoping some one in the high ranking would stop this?
作者：江海余生 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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