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 [原创] 作期权真的很难吗 - 大结局 |
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ceo/cfo, first thanks for the reply last time regarding.... -- 20062008 - (542 Byte) 2007-1-15 周一, 12:14 (341 reads) |
ceo/cfo
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
markets, I am not qualified to give you any advice. Let me post here an article I came across last week for your reference. I am out of Yhoo right now and are paying attention to Ebay instead.... 
Stocks: The Chinese Correction?
S&P Marketscope - January 08, 2007 11:54 AM ET
FXI Trade 105.40 0.00
From Standard&Poor's Equity Research. While our technical focus tends to be on the U.S. stock market -- with some analysis of the the UK's FTSE and Germany's DAX indexes -- investor fund flows have been heavily weighted towards overseas stock markets. Investment dollars tend to migrate to better returning assets, and, in this case, much more risky assets, in our view. It seems like any stock from China is a no-lose investment. The view of some speculators appears to be "just keep throwing money at the Chinese momentum, and you're on our way to quick riches." It kind of reminds you of the dot.com days. Our warning: Don't be the last one out the door.
The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI), an exchange-traded fund (ETF), is designed to mimic the index it is named after. The FTSE/Xinhua is designed to represent the performance of the largest companies in the China equity market that are available to international investors. The index is made up of 25 of the largest and most liquid Chinese companies, and as of Jan. 3, financials were the largest sector representing almost 43% of the fund. Telecommunications is about 19% of the fund, followed by 16% for oil&gas, 11% industrials, and 9% for basic materials. The ETF first started trading in March, 2005.
We have two major concerns about the FXI, and similar overseas investments. Number one, the chart has gone asymptotic and trading volume has exploded. The second is less scientific and more of an educated guess. And that is, we doubt investors really know anything about the companies in the fund, other than that they are based in China. The saving grace may be that these are large companies with a track record and not a '90's Internet company with zero revenues and no track record.
The chart of the FXI is downright scary, in our view, and due for a major correction. The ETF bottomed out at 66 on June 13, 2006, and as of the close on January 3, 2007, has soared a remarkable 76% in less than 7 months. More incredibly, the FXI has spiked over 26% since November 28, and 13.5% since December 21. Can you say "mass speculation"?
Since the last major low in June, 2006, the slope of the advance has changed four different times, getting steeper every time. Trading volume has exploded in the first trading days of 2007, running almost three times that of average daily volume. This is very typical of a speculative blowoff, and many times, they end badly. Daily momentum is extremely overbought, and has traced out negative divergences. As of January 3, the ETF was an incredible 39% above its 200-day exponential moving average.
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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